While many eyes remain on Bitcoin and Ether, Solana is currently playing a much more subtle game. The SOL crypto remains above $120, driven by a massive shift in liquidity and on-chain supply. On the other hand, demand on the traders' side remains surprisingly timid. And as long as this mismatch persists, Solana's structural advantage is not fully reflected in price.
In brief
- Solana is seeing its on-chain flows shift, with a massive influx of USDC and a sharp contraction in the supply of SOL.
- Key levels of $120, $135 and $142 now structure the market, while demand remains limited on derivatives.
- The reset PnL and the decline in speculation indicate a zone of re-accumulation, but the return of buyers will be essential to restart the trend.
Massive influx of stablecoins, shrinking SOL crypto supply
Binance is experiencing a decline in its cryptocurrency reserves, while stablecoin inflow reaches record levels. USDC inflows exceeded $2.12 billion, as over $1.11 billion in SOL left the platform. In other words, liquidity in stablecoins strengthens at the same time as the supply of SOL on order books is reduced. For a crypto, this type of configuration reveals the first signals of a “supply crunch”: capital accumulates waiting to be deployed while the tokens available for immediate sale decrease.
In this kind of configuration, stablecoins play the role of ammo on standby. When USDC flows focus on an ecosystem like Solana, it often signals that institutional investors or whales are positioning themselves, but without yet having clearly pressed the buy button. The market senses the presence of this potential liquidity, which helps defend major supports, notably the $120 zone.
Another revealing detail: the outflow of $450 million in USDT, for the benefit of USDC. It’s not just a simple arbitrage of stablecoins. It is also an indicator of trust. Historically, the increased use of USDC on Solana accompanies phases of healthier construction, more oriented towards investment and infrastructure than towards pure short-term speculation. For a performance-oriented crypto like SOL, this is a rather constructive basis.
On-chain levels that mark the ground: $135 and $142 in sight
On-chain average cost data shows two large blocks of buyers: around 17.8 million SOL purchased around $142 and 16 million SOL around $135. These areas are not simple prices on a chart. They materialize crowds of investors with memory, emotions, and limited tolerance for pain.
When large clusters are below price, they often act as a cushion. Holders are close to break-even or already making gains. They therefore have an interest in defending the area, even if it means strengthening their positions if the market relaxes. This partly explains the resilience of the support around $120: the recent purchasing structure is not completely weakened.
Conversely, massive clusters above price create potential ceilings. Trapped investors, buyers at $135 and $142, may be tempted to sell as soon as the price returns to their entry level to “exit clean”. As long as SOL fails to sustainably regain these two levels, the crypto remains locked in a zone of neutrality, with latent selling pressure as soon as the market rises too quickly. The real bullish shift will therefore play out precisely there: recovery of 135, then 142 dollars, with real volume.
Derivatives in slow motion, PnL reset: a ground for reaccumulation
While on-chain tells a story of accumulation and contraction of supply, the derivatives market is blowing the cold. The volume of SOL futures fell by around 3%, while at the same time, contracts on Bitcoin and Ether progressed significantly, with increases of 43% and 24%. Crypto traders are therefore selective: the appetite for leverage is concentrated elsewhere than on Solana.
This relative calm is not necessarily bad news. Less leverage often means fewer sharp liquidations and less speculative noise. According to unrealized profit metrics, the SOL market has returned to profitability levels close to those of October 2023, a period when the token was trading around $20. Clearly, the euphoria has been purged. The explosive outperformance of 2024–2025 has given way to a phase where the excesses have evaporated and the weakest hands have already capitulated.
Net Realized Profit/Loss indicators recorded large realized losses in November, similar to those observed during the February–April 2025 trough. Historically, this type of pattern often appears just before stronger recovery cycles. But nothing is automatic. To transform this re-accumulation ground into a real bullish catalyst, spot buyers will need to return, derivatives traders will need to increase their exposure and stable liquidity will finally start to massively convert into SOL.
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