Polymarket has entered a new phase of expansion as its U.S. relaunch begins after years of absence from the domestic market. According to recent reports, the platform is moving quickly to onboard waitlisted users into its updated app, starting with sporting event contracts. Regulatory approval came earlier this year, paving the way for a compliant return.
In brief
- Polymarket begins its relaunch in the United States by opening access to the waiting list, starting with sports markets after obtaining clearance from the CFTC.
- ICE is committing $2 billion at a valuation of $8 billion, with projections suggesting Polymarket could reach $10 billion to $15 billion with new funding.
- Predictive markets are growing rapidly, with weekly volumes approaching $1 billion and strong interest in elections, sports and world events.
- Studies show that up to a quarter of transactions may be washing activity, yet user participation and platform visibility continues to increase.
CFTC No-Action Letter Paves Path for Polymarket's Regulated Return to the United States
After months of preparation, Polymarket has started opening its platform to waitlisted users. Access now covers sports-related markets and will expand to more categories over time. The rollout follows a no-action letter issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in September.
Specifically, the letter approved a crypto derivatives exchange and clearinghouse acquired by Polymarket, allowing the company to return to the United States on compliant terms.
Following its forced exit in 2022 for compliance breaches, the company is re-emerging with stronger support and increased visibility. ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has committed $2 billion and assigned a valuation of $8 billion to the platform.
The company plans to integrate Polymarket's event signals into its data services. Analysts expect the valuation could reach $10 billion in the short term, while other reports suggest that figure could rise as high as $15 billion if new funding arrives.
Predictive Markets Expansion Rapidly as Trading Activity Rises
Growing activity in predictive markets is creating strong momentum for the sector. Kalshi, which recently raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion, remains Polymarket's main rival. Trading of event-based contracts increased sharply in 2024 as users turned to markets linked to US elections and major global events.
At times during the year, weekly volume reached $961 million with 247,000 active traders. Social media campaigns, wallet feeds, and token rewards have helped maintain activity in the political and sports markets.
Another line of research, however, has raised questions about inflated trading volumes. Recently, a Columbia study found that up to a quarter of transactions could be wash activity. Some weeks showed almost 60% of volume coming from repetitive loops among large wallet clusters. Despite these concerns, user growth and visibility of the platform have continued to increase.
Several forces shape prediction markets:
- The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi for volume and market share.
- Growing interest in sports, politics and world events.
- Strong institutional support for event-based financial products.
- Lingering questions about wash trading and reward-driven activity.
- Increased efforts by platforms to meet US regulatory requirements.
The expansion of the industry attracts new players to predictive markets. Coinbase is reportedly developing a predictive platform in partnership with Kalshi. Trump Media and Technology Group also announced plans in October to introduce event marketplaces on Truth Social.
Trading data from Token Terminal shows Kalshi leading with around $4.4 billion in volume in October, followed by Polymarket with just over $3 billion. Growing competition, new investments and a return to regulated access in the United States put Polymarket back at the heart of the race for predictive markets.
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