Predictive markets sell a simple promise. Bet on the future, read the crowd, win thanks to better intuition than others. But the latest data on Polymarket tells a much less flattering story, just as Kalshi and the broader sector are attracting more political and institutional attention.
In brief
- Polymarket above all shows a stark reality: the masses lose, a minority wins
- Kalshi and the rest of the sector enter a regulatory pressure zone
- And despite this, institutional capital continues to flow
Lots of volume, very few winners
On Polymarket, the majority loses. The analysis published on April 6, 2026 by Andrey Sergeenkov estimates that 84.1% of traders are in the red. In other words, less than one user in six shows a positive profit.
The most striking thing is not only this ratio. It is above all the weakness of the really substantial gains. Out of 2.5 million addresses studied, barely 2% exceeded $1,000 in cumulative profit. This observation is not surprising in an ecosystem sometimes driven by shocking bets, such as those relating to the death of an American pilot. Only 0.32% of addresses crossed $10,000. And only 840 addresses, or 0.033%, exceeded $100,000, according to Sergeenkov.
The idea of a regular income thanks to these platforms therefore looks more like a showcase than a reality. Sergeenkov shows that only 0.98% of traders earned more than $5,000 in a month. And only 0.26% have an average monthly profit above this threshold. Even among the best, the duration remains short.
Why the gap is widening on Polymarket
The dropout does not fall from the sky. The study links this deterioration to the explosion in the number of users after the American election in November 2024. More noise, more new entrants, more impulsive positions. In this type of market, this is enough to reinforce the advantage of already established profiles.
Academic work goes in the same direction. A study posted online on SSRN at the end of 2025 already estimated that only around 30% of traders made a positive profit on Polymarket. Another preprint dated January 2026 shows an extreme concentration of gains: the top 1% captures 84% of all profits. The market can therefore be informative, while remaining brutal for less experienced participants.
You still need to read these figures correctly. Sergeenkov's study reasons in addresses, not necessarily in people. It also only measures profits made, which can temporarily classify positions that are still open as losses. But even with these limits, the trend remains clear: the promise of a balanced playing field seems very exaggerated.
This observation comes at the worst time for the sector. In Washington, several elected officials now want to tighten the screws on predictive markets linked to war, terrorism, assassinations or sensitive public decisions.
The BETS OFF Act, presented in March 2026, targets precisely this type of contract. The DEATH BETS Act follows the same logic by wanting to more explicitly prohibit betting on death and war. At the same time, the American regulatory debate is not limited to these abuses: on the crypto side, the CLARITY Act remains the other major issue, with the ambition of imposing a more readable federal framework on digital assets. This contrast is revealing. Washington seeks both to better regulate financial innovation and to close the door to products deemed the most toxic.
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