Donald Trump's surprise announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel caused a real earthquake on the energy markets. Oil prices have plunged by more than 5 %, while world scholarships fly away. Is this geopolitical lull sustainable?
In short
- Oil drops by more than 5 % after the cease-fire announcement between Israel and Iran.
- The stock markets and crypto rebound thanks to geopolitical relaxation.
- The agreement between Israel and Iran soothes tensions and reduces fears of disturbances in the Strait of Ormuz.
- The uncertainty remains, but the hope of a de -escalation makes the markets react positively.
Trump diplomacy is shaking the energy markets
Donald Trump hit hard. His shattering declaration on Truth Social announcing a cease-fire between Iran and Israel has sparked an immediate shock wave on the oil markets.
The traders, caught in short, massively sold their positions, causing a spectacular fall of the courses.
The Brent of the Brent of the North Sea collapsed from 5.02 % to $ 67.89, while the American WTI plumped from 5.21 % to 64.94 dollars.
This tumbles follows an already noticed drop of 7 % the day before, testifying to the extreme nervousness of operators in the face of geopolitical tensions.
The acceptance by Israel of this American proposal was immediately praised by the markets. Tel Aviv announced that it has achieved “all objectives” of its military campaign against Iran, paving the way for this long-awaited de-escalation.
However, Iran has not yet officially confirmed this agreement, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi specifying that there is “no agreement” at this stage.
This brutal reaction Courses perfectly illustrates the “war bonus” that had accumulated in recent days. Investors feared massive reprisals likely to disrupt the Strait of Ormuz, a strategic passage through which 20 % of global oil production pass.
The limited Iranian strike against the American base of Al Udeid in Qatar finally reassured the markets on Tehran's intention not to climb more.
Oil prices in the face of their real determinants
Beyond the geopolitical effect, this fall reveals the fragility of oil prices to the fundamentals of the market.
Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management, stresses that ” Tehran played the prudence card so as not to shake the foundations of the oil market ».
The tank traffic lanes remained open, spreading the spectrum from a supply crisis.
This situation highlights the structural imbalances in the oil market. Global demand remains under pressure, hampered by economic uncertainties linked to Trump's commercial wars.
At the same time, the planetary offer remains overabundant with high stocks, large available reserve capacities of OPEC+ and a production of American shale gas always flourishing.
The global scholarships immediately took advantage of this relaxation. Tokyo closed up 1.08 %, Seoul jumped 2.96 %and Sydney won 0.95 %.
This euphoria is explained by the dissipation of the fears of a major military escalation which could have destabilized the world economy. Paris is not to be outdone with a CAC 40 up 1.25 %, carried by the hope of a return to normal.
A fragile lull in an explosive context
Despite this upturn, analysts remain cautious. Michael Wan from MUFG Bank recalls that “the details of the ceasefire agreement are still blurred”.
Relaxation is therefore not definitively acquired, especially since Iran maintains an ambiguous position on this agreement.
This situation perfectly illustrates the extreme volatility of energy markets in the face of geopolitical tensions. The oil prices remain at the mercy of the slightest diplomatic or military incident in the Middle East. The region concentrates a considerable part of world production, making each political jolly a potential catalyst for energy crisis.
The evaporation of the “war premium” mechanically benefits the world's scholarships and sensitive sectors such as tourism. Air France-KLM flocked by 9.65% in Paris, while Totalenergies fell by 3.45%, victim of the fall in oil prices.
This redistribution of cards shows how interconnected markets are and instantly react to geopolitical signals.
Trump's muscular diplomacy seems to bear fruit, at least temporarily. It remains to be seen whether this lull will resist the test of time in a region where the balances remain precarious.
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