Bitcoin (BTC) a ticking time bomb, analysis from August 15, 2023

Bitcoin came to perform nearly 6% this week beginning, leaving $26K behind. Let’s see the future prospects for the parent cryptocurrency.

Status of BTC

This Tuesday, two pieces of news turned out to be positive for bitcoin.

On the one hand, the JOLTS report, which is an indicator linked to job supply, was published below expectations, showing a slack in the labor market. This phenomenon is impatiently awaited by the Federal Reserve of the United States to initiate more accommodating monetary policies, in particular in favor of Bitcoin.

On the other, Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC.

This news caused the price of BTC to leave its range around $26K to test $28K. Bitcoin is now trading around $27,700. Please note that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (drawn from the last bearish impulse) has not been crossed. We can still be reassured with the return of BTC above the 200 daily moving average. Or, with the oscillators showing us the potential resumption of a bullish momentum.

Chart of BTCUSD in daily time frame
Chart of BTCUSD in daily time frame

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual aid around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives

According to several data platforms, more than 40 Million dollars of short positions have been liquidated. However, this has not impacted the open interest of Bitcoin. On the contrary. According to CryptoQuant, the OI to increase yesterday by almost 950 Million dollars. Looking at the latest moves in BTC, much of that cash is in the Bulls’ camp. Arguably, this scenario now demonstrates the relevance of the $26K support.

Bitcoin: Open Interest - All Exchanges, All Symbol CryptoQuant
Bitcoin: Open Interest – All Exchanges, All Symbol CryptoQuant

Assumptions for the price of BTC

. As said in the Bitcoin analysis from August 22, If the price of Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum above $28K, we could anticipate a bullish continuation to the psychological threshold of $29-30K. The next resistance to consider at this point will be the Bitcoin price 2023 ATH, approximately at $32K.

. If the price of Bitcoin fails to cross 28K, we could envisage a return to 27,000 or even $26,400. Unfortunately, if these latest levels don’t hold, BTC’s price could make up for the way it’s lately made from $26K.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is visibly trying to escape the worst. This feedback from buyers is promising. However, it does not yet allow us to be optimistic enough to consider that the BTC will make new highs for this year 2023. It will be important to observe the reaction of the price on the different identifiable levels to confirm or not the different hypotheses. carried out. Beware of potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each situation. In addition, it should be remembered that these scenarios are based solely on technical analysis. The price of cryptocurrencies can change more or less quickly, depending on other more fundamental factors.

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