What friend Donald Trump will he not betray with the powers at his disposal? Elon Musk has already paid the price, victim of a steep turnaround. Today, Mukesh Ambani is undergoing the consequences of the policies of the current American president. Reliance industries, flagship of Indian capitalism and Modi's economic arms, is found at the heart of a geopolitical storm. Accused by the United States of large-scale “oil arbitration”, Ambani now embodies an uncomfortable figure in the economic war launched by Trump.
In short
- Mukesh Ambani has signed a 10 -year contract with Rosneft for Russian oil.
- Trump accuses Ambani of economic arbitration by reselling refined oil to Europe.
- Reliance represents the Indian economy but undergoes a trade war waged by Trump.
- Washington has doubled customs duties on Indian imports of energy products.
When Ambani embodies patriotic capitalism in the forge of India
Mukesh Ambani, author of a crypto project on Polygon, is not an outsider. He embodies a winning national economy, pillar of the Modi project. Reliance, its refining, its omnipresence in distribution and telecom: everything is aligned with the dream of a powerful India. However, Trump decided that this dream was suspect, saying that Indian conglomerates, from which reliance, took advantage of the war.
Advisor Peter Navarro and the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not chew their words, denouncing ” Politically connected energy titans Taking advantage of the war. And Ambani is targeted.
According to KPLER, between January and June 2025, 141.57 million Russian gross barrels were imported by reliance via a ten -year contract with Rosneft. Economy obliges, Trump retaliates with customs duties doubled at 50 % on this oil.
Ambani has become the symbol of an annoying private-public rapprochement in the current geopolitical game.
Oil arbitration: $ 16 billion in profits … and a thunderclap in the world economy
The word strikes hard: $ 16 billion in “excessive profits” – according to Bessent – would have been garnered thanks to the purchase of Russian oil at broken prices, sold as a refined product on the global market. Reliance, assisted by Nayara Energy, exported $ 60 billion in petroleum products in 2024-2025, including 15 billion to the European Union in only six months.
Reliance paid Russian oil on average $ 71.47 per barrel, compared to $ 75.5 for Saudi Arabia: a saving of $ 4 per barrel with refines; Just on the T1 -T2 2025, this represents a considerable margin. It is this logic of “Indian arbitration” that Trump castigated, accusing these profiteers of drawing the strings of a geopolitical chaos economy.
Ambani was not not for all that out of radar : The Indian government has not answered anything officially, but a close source assures that, behind behind the scenes, these accusations are perceived as “political theater”. Reliance intends to continue to diversify its supplies while playing tight.
Global ambitions to the test of economic diplomacy … and Trump
Reliance is not only petrochemistry: it invests in retail, telecoms (JIO), Tech. Meta is already a partner of its digital branch. But today, these global ambitions are upset on tension with the United States. Ambani has little assets across the Atlantic, apart from participation in the Oriental Mandarin of New York.
However, implicit threats of financial sanctions or access to access to American markets hover. And in the geopolitical duel, Ambani does not have the weight of China, which remains largely not punished despite its higher Russian import volumes.
Standing facts:
- Reliance imported nearly 142 million barrels from Russia into six months;
- 36 % of India's petroleum needs come from Russia in 2025 (against almost zero in 2022);
- Oil exports (RIL + NAYARA): $ 60 billion, including 25 % to the EU;
- Average Russian gross price: $ 71.47/B; Saudi: $ 75.5/B;
- Customs duties inflicted by Trump: up to 50 %.
Ambani could come out of politically and financially weakened. The “economy” of India (Pro-CBDC countries) depends on diplomatic diversification, but this trade war waged by Trump makes the very pillars of an Indian model centered around private giants benefiting from close links with the state.
On the Musk and Trump front, the story is now old. Musk was ready to challenge the system by creating an “America Party”, visibly sacrificed on the altar of pragmatism and politics. He agreed to temporarily renounce his political party project, preferring to preserve his activities and his links – in particular with JD Vance – rather than to oppose Trump head on.
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