Long-term investors accumulate Bitcoin as available supply continues to contract

Long-term investors are returning to bitcoin in force. According to the latest on-chain data, their BTC reserves are approaching an all-time high, ending several years of decline. This gradual accumulation reduces the supply available on the market, at a time when institutional flows continue to increase pressure on bitcoin.

Historical investors are accumulating bitcoin again

The data shows that the supply held by long-term investors, holding on to their bitcoins for at least 155 days, is now approaching an all-time high.

This progression above all marks the end of a downward trend established for several years, during which some of the historical holders had gradually distributed their BTC to the market. According to Glassnode figures:

• Nearly 80% of the circulating supply would now be controlled by long-term investors;
• Around 4 million BTC would be held by conviction investors;
• This category of investors would have increased their reserves by around 300% since the end of 2025.

This dynamic directly modifies the market balance. Fewer bitcoins are actively circulating on exchange platforms, which mechanically reduces the available supply in the short term. Mati Greenspan estimated besides that “Periods of reduced liquid supply combined with a recovery in demand have historically preceded bitcoin's most aggressive bullish expansions”.

Several analysts are already comparing this accumulation phase to the configurations observed after the Covid crash in 2020, a period during which high-conviction investors began to massively absorb the available supply before the triggering of the previous bullish cycle.

ETFs and institutional investors are reshaping market structure

Beyond on-chain data, this accumulation also reflects the evolution of the profile of buyers present on the market. The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has profoundly changed capital flows since 2024, with a gradual absorption of part of the available supply by institutional investment vehicles.

This new demand helps to further lock in the circulating supply and reinforces the feeling of scarcity around bitcoin. Connor Howe, analyst at Enso, believes that “the bitcoin scarcity narrative is evolving from a theory to a market structure”.

This transformation does not, however, mean the disappearance of profit taking. Indeed, some long-term investors still made nearly $180 million in daily profits after BTC returned above $80,000. The market is therefore crossed by constant trade-offs between strategic accumulation and securing profits. Thus, the difference is mainly due to the fact that long-term buyers now seem to absorb the distribution phases more quickly than during previous cycles.

This configuration could have a lasting impact on the future dynamics of bitcoin. If institutional demand continues to grow while liquid supply contracts, the market could enter a phase of structural tension on available supply. Several analysts already see the beginnings of a new supply shock, a scenario in which the scarcity of the asset suddenly accelerates upward movements when buyers massively return to the market.