The fragile calm of the crypto market has been shattered. In a few sessions, bitcoin fell suddenly to near $60,000, reviving doubts about the solidity of the bullish cycle. This 32% correction since the halving calls out: simple turbulence or pivot point of the market? A study by Kaiko Research puts forward a strong hypothesis: bitcoin has reached the midpoint of the bear market.
In brief
- Bitcoin fell as low as $60,000, hitting its lowest level since October 2024.
- This 32% correction since the halving could mark the midpoint of the bear market, according to a study by Kaiko Research.
- Several technical indicators confirm a slowing of the upward momentum, notably the drop in spot and derivatives volume.
- Overall market sentiment is worsening, with the fear index plummeting and net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
Towards a technical trough? Midpoint Signals
Bitcoin fell to $60,000, its lowest level since October 2024. According to a study by Kaiko Research, this drop could mark a pivotal stage in the cycle, despite a fragile rebound.
“Bitcoin’s 32% decline represents the sharpest correction since the 2024 halving, and could well be the focal point of the current bear market”, noted the report. This hypothesis is based on a cross-reading of several quantitative indicators, aiming to identify the underlying dynamics of the current decline.
Here are the signals revealed in Kaiko's analysis:
- Spot volume down 30% since March 2024 peak, revealing a clear disengagement of active buyers;
- The open interest of futures contracts fell by 14%, confirming the gradual closure of long positions;
- The increasing dominance of stablecoins, generally seen as a marker of increasing risk aversion on exchange platforms;
- A correction of -32% post-halving, the largest since this event, even if it is moderate compared to previous cycles;
- The 52% retracement ratio from the all-time high, considered relatively ” shallow “ compared to past bear markets.
These elements are used to show that the market has passed half of a downward cycle, without excluding the possibility of further shocks. The approach adopted by Kaiko is intended to be methodical. Rather than relying on prices alone, the study favors a structural analysis of investor behavior and capital flows.
A test for investors: fear, hesitation and trade-offs
Beyond technical signals, the current market climate reflects a general decline in sentiment. Indeed, the fear and greed index is reaching low levels not seen since the collapse of FTX in 2022. This dynamic has been reinforced by massive liquidations on derivatives platforms, a sign of increased selling pressure and a snowball effect on long positions.
The return to a level as symbolic as $60,000 was accompanied by a decline in overall liquidity. Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs increased, particularly from American structures, reflecting a certain caution among institutional managers. At the same time, the increase in volatility in traditional markets, particularly technology stocks, has pushed certain players to reduce their exposure to risky assets, including bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin is testing a critical threshold, reigniting tensions in an already fragile market. Between the hypothesis of a cyclical bottom and persistent bearish signals, uncertainty dominates. The next few weeks will be decisive in assessing whether this correction marks a temporary pause or the continuation of a deeper bearish cycle.
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