Israel vs Iran - The inflationary scenario

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens to spill over into Iran if the United States carries out its threats.

Israel declares war

The Palestinians launched the operation al-Aqsa Flood against Israel on October 6. The date is not trivial. Fifty years ago today, Israel faced an Arab military coalition led by Egypt and Syria. The Yom Kippur War.

Indiscriminate shooting by Hamas and other Palestinian resistance organizations on Israelis, kidnappings of civilians, rocket attacks on Israel, drone attacks, are the familiar language of the Israeli occupier, the journalist rightly declared Chris Hedge.

If the mainstream press is already defending Israel, let us remember that the colonization of Palestine and the apartheid regime are the primary causes of this new bloodshed.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz concedes: “We cannot imprison two million Gazans without paying a cruel price”. In fact, Gaza is an open-air prison.

Hence the numerous demonstrations of support across the four corners of the East. Particularly in the Turkish, Egyptian, Yemeni, Lebanese, Iranian, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Jordanian and Bahraini capitals:

Conversely, Western capitals have highlighted the colors of the Israeli flag. The Eiffel Tower, the Brandenburg Gate, the headquarters of the European Commission and the Empire State Building were all draped in white and blue.

After a series of consultations with US President Joe Biden and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that he had full freedom to eliminate Palestinian resistance in Gaza.

For now, there are already several hundred victims and thousands of injured on both the Israeli and Gazan sides.

“There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel. We fight animals and we will act accordingly”declared the Israeli Defense Minister this Monday.

Support from Arab governments

The Saudi kingdom recalled “his repeated warnings of the danger represented by the continuation of the occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights and the repetition of provocations against their sacred places. The Kingdom renews the call of the international community to assume its responsibilities and activate a credible peace process leading to the two-State solution […] “.

Same story on the Russian side. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls for “an immediate ceasefire and a peace plan based on the creation of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Opinion shared by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs which considers that the only way “resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the implementation of the two-state solution and the independence of the State of Palestine”.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also rallied to the Palestinian cause, as did Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi which asks Arab nations to unite:

“Iran supports the self-defense of the Palestinian nation. The Zionist regime and its supporters […] must be held responsible in this matter. […] Greetings to the resistance of Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen. Greetings to the organizations of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as well as to all resistance groups.”

Egypt has acted as mediator and warns that a ground invasion of Gaza would trigger a military response from Hezbollah (Lebanon). In other words, the entry of tanks into Gaza could cause a chain reaction.

US warns Iran

Senator Lindsay Graham has threatened Iran with retaliation if Hezbollah enters the fray. “Iran has four major oil refineries. If Hezbollah attacks Israel, Iran will pay dearly »he threatened:

Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy showed himself even more determined:

“We must confront Iran. Hamas is a puppet of Iran. […] We must confront this new axis of power. This is an axis of evil made up of Iran, Russia and China. »

THE Wall Street Journal also added fuel to the fire by suggesting that Tehran would have given “his green light”. The Pentagon was also quick to describe Iran as ” partner in crime “conceding however that he has no proof.

Iran has denied any involvement in the attacks and warns that “any miscalculation with regard to it will result in a destructive response.”

Regardless, the threats over Iranian refineries are telling. This is a thinly veiled threat towards China which, despite the US embargo, plans to invest 400 billion dollars in the Iranian petrochemical industry.

Let us remember that Persia refuses to sell its oil in dollars. We always come back to the crux of the matter: the petrodollar…

The Strait of Hormuz

A war with Iran could cause global stagflation (recession + inflation) if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

In fact, 20% of world oil production passes through it. Not to mention gas. More than 2,400 tankers pass through this 60 km bottleneck each year, representing almost 50% of global exports by sea.

This world war scenario would cause an economic recession coupled with high inflation. The markets know this, hence the rise in the price of a barrel. Let us also remember that during the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the price of a barrel quadrupled, going from 3 to 10 dollars in a few months before reaching $39 in 1980…

These international tensions will also exacerbate budget deficits. War is expensive and it is hard to see how we could pay for all this waste without printing money. “QE” will make a comeback if the stock markets falter and borrowing rates rise.

We should then expect bitcoin to return to the center of debate. Decentralized, stateless, uncensorable, it will maintain the link in the event of a collapse of international relations. It is insurance against the worst scenarios which unfortunately seem to be taking shape.

Receive a summary of the news in the world of cryptocurrencies by subscribing to our new service newsletter daily and weekly so you don’t miss anything of the essentials!

Similar Posts