Is it a good time to buy bitcoin?

The recent fluctuations in bitcoin (BTC) have fueled concern among investors, while experts clash with varied and often contradictory forecasts. The upcoming price movements raise many questions and no certainty seems to emerge. Between worries and hopes, the future of bitcoin remains unpredictable, fueling as much debate as speculation.

Bitcoin: Moustache sees a unique buying opportunity

A crypto analyst, known by the pseudonym Moustache, claims that the current period could represent a unique buying opportunity for bitcoin. Followed by more than 126,000 Internet users on X, he shared on this social network, his conviction that bitcoin is about to enter the Spring phase of the Wyckoff reaccumulation model. This technical analysis model uses price and volume patterns to predict potential price movements. The Spring phase is particularly followed by traders, as it often heralds a sharp price recovery.

Looking at the daily chart for Bitcoin, Moustache notes a price consolidation, with major support at the May and June 2024 levels. Prices dropped below $57,000 in May to bottom at around $56,500. Resistance lies between $72,000 and the March 2024 highs. Bitcoin is currently retesting this support, having briefly broken through $60,000 to reach $56,900 on July 4. According to Moustache, this situation could be a prelude to a Spring phase, especially if the current losses are not confirmed.

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Willy Woo's Caution and the Miners' Capitulation

Not all analysts share Moustache’s optimistic view. Willy Woo, an expert specializing in on-chain analysis, attributes the recent price drop to a capitulation by miners. Looking at Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons indicators, Willy Woo notes that this capitulation is underway and is particularly affecting the least performing miners.

Since the April 20 halving, where bitcoin rewards were halved to 3.125 BTC, miners have been under increased pressure. Only the most efficient ones can continue to operate profitably, while those who cannot upgrade their equipment are forced to exit the market. On-chain data shows that these miners have been selling their BTC, contributing to the price correction seen since April.

In contrast, long-term holders, largely institutions and whales, have stopped selling since mid-January 2024, after the SEC approved the first Bitcoin spot ETF. As a result, the illiquid supply of bitcoin, representing coins that have not moved in more than two years, is near an all-time high.

Bitcoin’s current fall has analysts divided. On one side, Moustache sees an imminent buying opportunity based on the Wyckoff model, while Willy Woo warns of the implications of miner capitulation. While the latter prefers to play it safe, several analysts are already sounding the alarm by predicting a fall of the queen of cryptos below $50,000.

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