IMF modernizes its macroeconomic analysis tools, but once again excludes cryptos

Behind the scenes of global economic governance, an unnoticed reform could redefine the rules of the game. The IMF, alongside the UN, the World Bank, the OECD and the European Commission, introduces the 2025 national account system (SNA 2025), a major statistical turning point. This new framework incorporates cryptos, environmental depreciation and overall value chains. Behind this apparent technical update, it is a deep redefinition of wealth and the economic priorities that emerges.

Crypto in accounts, but always “out of GDP”

While the IMF says no to the subsidies for Mining Crypto, the institution goes even further and underlines in a post that “Bitcoin remains largely out of books, despite its energy consumption equivalent to that of Argentina”. This formula sums up the current position of the Washington institution in front of the flagship crypto.

If The new SNA 2025 Recognizes for the first time the existence of cryptos in national statistics, he does not consider them as economic production. According to the IMF, these assets, although they have a real market value and a real energy impact, do not generate goods or services in the traditional sense of the term, a condition sine qua not to be integrated into the calculation of the gross domestic product (GDP).

In this new approach, cryptos are reclassified in the category of “Non -financial assets”. They therefore do not enter into the creation of economic value measured by GDP, but appear in national wealth assessments. According to the elements provided by the IMF, this will allow a more precise evaluation of their macroeconomic weight. The IMF insists on the reasons for this evolution:

• “Measuring cryptos is essential from a public policy point of view” : this poses issues of financial stability, regulation and taxation;

• Their absence of economic statistics was a difficulty for governments;

• Their heritage recognition allows states to better follow the volumes, uses and risks linked to these assets;

• This classification represents a first step towards a more formal integration of the crypto universe in existing economic frameworks, without disrupting the calculation of growth.

A reform designed for the digital age

“The cornerstone of our digital world, from mobile applications to artificial intelligence tools, did not exist in 2008”, Recalls the IMF in its presentation of SNA 2025. It is precisely to fill this void that the current reform was launched.

The new system pays particular attention to technological innovations that redefine the borders of the economy: artificial intelligence, cloud services, digital intermediation platforms, e-commerce … So many components which, so far, have only been partially taken into account in national accounts. The IMF and its partners have thus introduced specific indicators for AI, and recommended the creation of datasets dedicated to these new sectors.

Another important component concerns the net national product (NDP), which the SNA intends to promote as a complement to the traditional GDP. This new indicator takes into account the wear of fixed capital, but also the depreciation of natural resources.

According to IMF estimates, the NDP is on average 10 to 25 % lower than GDP. This approach aims to offer a more sustainable reading of growth, especially for countries whose economy is strongly based on mining or petroleum extraction. In parallel, the reform improves the monitoring of financial risks linked to non -banking institutions, and refines the traceability of production and income flows for multinational companies.

Beyond its classification as a non-financial active, bitcoin could claim a more central role in macroeconomic indicators. Given its growing adoption, its market capitalization and the economic activity it generates, whether it is mining, exchange platforms or related services, its exclusion from GDP could appear as a methodological bias. Integrating Bitcoin into the calculation of GDP would amount to recognizing its real impact on the productive economy, like other digital sectors.

Ultimately, these methodological developments could have major political implications. By redrawing economic performance indicators, they directly influence budgetary, tax and social policies. For the crypto sector, this update opens a breach in the statistical hermeticism of which he was the victim. If Bitcoin is still away from GDP, its presence in national accounts can feed, in the future, tax, regulatory, even monetary discussions, especially that it becomes less volatile.