While the Bitcoin market remains under pressure, one analyst suggests that the bottom may have been reached. Against the climate of mistrust, he envisages a rebound towards 100,000-110,000 dollars, relaunching speculation on a reversal of the trend. This scenario, based on precise technical indicators, contrasts with the prevailing sluggishness and attracts the attention of investors.
In brief
- Bitcoin may have reached a local bottom after a phase of strong capitulation in the market.
- Analyst Mister Crypto identifies a weekly RSI close to 30, a historical rebound signal.
- Speculation about a rate cut and the end of monetary tightening reinforces this scenario.
- Despite these positive signals, the market remains on a downward trend overall according to analysts.
Signals of a technical low point
While Strategy releases an anti-panic indicator that changes everything after the crash of the flagship asset, trader Mister Crypto suggests in a recent analysis that bitcoin would have formed a short-term bottom, after an intense phase of sales that he describes as “surrender”.
It is based primarily on the technical indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index), observed in weekly data. “We have reached the low point for Bitcoin, this is where it plays out. We hit level 30. Boom”, asserts-he.
Historically, this level is often associated with temporary trend reversals, particularly in prolonged bear market phases. According to him, this reading of the RSI corresponds to a stabilization of the price structure of BTC, even if the analyst is not talking about the start of a bull run at this stage.
Beyond the RSI, Mister Crypto identifies several technical and behavioral factors that reinforce the hypothesis of a short-term technical rebound:
- Whales would have started to open long positions, despite a context of extreme fear;
- Market sentiment, although negative, creates an environment typical of temporary reversals, as observed in previous cycles;
- Behavioral analysis suggests the beginning of a strategic repositioning of certain major players, who would benefit from prices considered attractive in the short term.
For Mister Crypto, this convergence of technical signals and market behavior creates a configuration conducive to a one-off, but potentially significant, rebound, without validating the definitive end of the bear market.
A potential rebound under macroeconomic tension
Beyond technical indicators, Mister Crypto mentions other elements which, in his eyes, could support a temporary rebound phase.
He notably mentions the current distance between the price of the asset and its 50-week moving average, positioned around $102,000. He recalls that “in previous cycles, BTC has regularly rebounded towards this average after breaking it”suggesting a dynamic return to equilibrium before any new momentum or major correction.
On the macroeconomic level, several elements fuel this hypothesis of a relief rally. The analyst anticipates a potential end to quantitative tightening as well as a possible rate cut at an upcoming meeting of monetary authorities, two factors which, if they materialize, could ease financial conditions and restore momentum to risky assets like bitcoin.
At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had stagnated for 18 days amid extreme fear, has just risen to 28, a level that is still fragile, but which reflects a relative improvement in market sentiment.
The interpretation of this context divides analysts. If Mister Crypto envisages a rebound towards 100,000 to 110,000 dollars, he tempers his remarks by recalling that this movement could be transitory.
The overall market is still bearish according to him, and a return to sustainable growth would require a real structural reversal of economic and monetary conditions. For his part, André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, evokes an asymmetric risk-return profile, comparable to that of the fall of March 2020, affirming that “the market is already creating an extremely pessimistic macroeconomic scenario”.
The scenario of a rebound towards $110,000 remains uncertain, but technical signals are reviving speculation. In this context, bitcoin shows a strong negative correlation with USDT, an indicator scrutinized by investors looking for a strategic entry point.
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