The announcement dates back to Tuesday March 25, 2026. Google has just published an official schedule for migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) by 2029. Behind this technical deadline lies a reality that directly concerns bitcoin holders: quantum computers are advancing… fast.
In brief
- Google has set a post-quantum migration deadline of 2029 for its entire infrastructure.
- Around 6.8 million BTC are in theoretically vulnerable addresses.
- The estimate of qubits needed to break Bitcoin has increased from 20 million to 100,000.
- BIP 360 is the only formal response from the Bitcoin network — no activation planned at this stage.
- Migrating Bitcoin would take 5 to 10 years according to Jameson Lopp (Casa).
Bitcoin facing the quantum threat: why is 2029 a date that matters?
Heather Adkins, vice president of security at Google, and Sophie Schmieg, cryptography engineer, signed an unequivocal official memo. According to them, the quantum frontiers seem closer than they appear. The threat is therefore fast approaching.
In the calendarthey identify two types of risks and the first is striking now. Malicious actors collect encrypted data today, with the intention of decrypting it later. A technique called “harvest now, decrypt later”. The second is in the future: when a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is operational, it will be able to break the digital signatures that secure the Internet.
THE Bitcoin crypto network relies on ECDSA, elliptical curve signatures. This is precisely the type of algorithm that Shor's algorithm can theoretically break. Result: from an exposed public key, a quantum computer could go back to the private key. And there, the funds would be within reach.
According to Project Elevena company specializing in quantum security, approximately 6.8 million bitcoins are in vulnerable addresses. That’s more than $470 billion. For their part, Ark Invest and Unchained estimate that 35% of the total supply of BTC would ultimately be exposed.
How can Bitcoin protect itself before Q-Day 2029?
The problem is not just technical. It also concerns governance.
- Google controls its infrastructure.
- Bitcoin obeys a decentralized consensus.
- No team can decide on a migration alone.
- Every miner, developer, exchange and user will have to move at the same time.
Jameson Lopp, co-founder of bitcoin custody service Casa, is blunt:
At present, we are still very far from having a quantum computer usable in cryptography, at least according to our knowledge.
He adds, however, that the Bitcoin crypto network migration could take five to ten years alone.
However, a concrete proposal exists: the BIP 360 (Bitcoin Improvement Proposal). It introduces a quantum-resistant address format, called Pay-to-Merkle-Root. This text was officially included in the formal submission of bitcoin proposals. It doesn't activate anything yet. But he starts the clock.
On Google's side, the response is already in motion. Android 17 will integrate ML-DSA, an algorithm standardized by NIST for secure digital signatures. IBM is aiming for the same horizons. The race is now on. And the most recent estimates from Iceberg Quantum suggest that 100,000 qubits would now be enough (compared to 20 million previously) to threaten current systems.
2029 is therefore no longer an abstraction. It's a deadline. Google fixed it for itself. Bitcoin has not yet decided. Now the real question is whether the crypto community will act before the threat becomes a reality.
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