Glassnode detects the start of bullish momentum on Bitcoin, but without clear confirmation

Back towards $76,000, bitcoin revives the hypothesis of a bullish recovery, without dispelling doubts about the strength of the rebound. On-chain data is improving, flows are recovering, but several confirmation markers remain out of reach. Behind the return of optimism, one question dominates: is the market really picking up again, or are we witnessing a simple respite?

Bitcoin rebound opens bullish window again

The return of bitcoin towards $76,000 has revived the idea of ​​a more solid market, without being enough to confirm a lasting turnaround. This progression still fits into a phase of emerging recovery, where volatility continues to remind us of the fragility of the movement.

Glassnode noted that BTC is now moving in a relatively open zone between $72,000 and $82,000, where on-chain resistance appears weaker than in previous weeks.

This improvement is also due to bitcoin's exit from an important accumulation corridor. The market has indeed crossed a dense zone between $59,000 and $72,000, highlighted by the distribution of the realized price of UTXOs. Clearly, BTC has emerged from a block where many investors had accumulated their positions, which opens up, in the short term, a more fluid area of ​​progression as long as the momentum is maintained.

• The share of bitcoin supply in profit has risen back to around 60%, a level that Glassnode associates with the early stages of recovery after a bear market. The company adds that a sustainable move above 75% would constitute a “signal confirming the entry into an emerging bullish phase” ;

• Selling pressure remains very present among short-term holders. So, when bitcoin exceeded $74,000, the profits made reached $18.4 million per hour;

• Glassnode estimated that if the market absorbs this wave of profit taking and keeps $70,000 as support, an extension towards $78,000 to $82,000 becomes more likely;

• The market is sending recovery signals, but it has yet to produce full validation of a bullish impulse.

Confirmation thresholds remain out of reach

Improving price alone is not enough to validate a lasting shift. Indeed, the basic structure remains cautious on daily and weekly time units, with a succession of “lower and lower highs and lower and lower troughs”.

To invalidate this reading, bitcoin would need to retake its previous descending high near $97,855 and hold there. This high also corresponds to the golden Fibonacci zone, between 0.5 and 0.618, a space closely watched by traders when a trend reversal is in play.

The cycle signal goes in the same direction. So, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator remains at -0.72, compared to -1 earlier in the month. Full confirmation of a bull market would require a return above 1, while a first leading marker would be through a crossing of the bull-bear 365-day moving average, currently at -0.23.

At the same time, the Glassnode note describes a recovery driven primarily by the spot market. US ETF flows have recovered over a month, positioning on CME contracts remains contained, and the current dynamic seems to come more from spot demand than from excess leverage.

The rebound in bitcoin therefore revives a bullish scenario, without removing all doubts about its solidity. Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $164 million in outflows, proof that a share of the market still remains in reserve. The signal is improving, the conviction is still awaiting true confirmation.