The price of bitcoin seems ready to embark on an exceptional movement, and speculation is rife. Will it fly away or collapse? Analysts are bracing themselves, and investors are holding their breath.
The January FOMC: an expected catalyst for bitcoin
After a tense week, the market is impatiently awaiting the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for this month. According to the research director of 10x Research, Markus Thielen, this meeting should trigger a significant price breakout on bitcoin. Chart signals point to a “shrinking triangle,” a sign that a sharp fluctuation is on the horizon.
This technical configuration suggests two possible scenarios. Bitcoin could jump above its current psychological mark if inflation turns out to be weaker than expected.
Investors are indeed anticipating a possible relaxation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, a favorable scenario for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. But nothing is certain.
On the other hand, the Fed is maintaining a tone considered “hawkish” for the moment. During her previous announcement, she suggested that there would be fewer rate cuts than expected in 2025.
If the meeting confirms this position, bitcoin could experience profit-taking and weaken. Eyes are therefore riveted on the FOMC: it is the key factor which risks dictating the short-term trend.
Between caution and opportunity: eyes on Trump
As Donald Trump's inauguration date approaches, some observers prefer caution. Past experiences show that political instability can dampen bitcoin's momentum, or even create a consolidation zone. Thielen also estimates that crypto could stagnate until mid-March, while waiting for a more stable economic climate.
However, other voices point out that bitcoin has already defied many predictions. The analyst Lark Davis evokes a parallel between the current market and that of the last presidential election.
At the time, a drop toward the $30,000 mark preceded a meteoric rebound to $55,000 shortly after the inauguration.
This optimistic scenario appeals to more than one investor, even if history does not always repeat itself identically. However, crypto constantly proves it: it likes to surprise. An upward shock remains possible if macroeconomic signals align in favor of the market. Between caution and fervor, only one certainty remains: the coming weeks will be decisive for bitcoin and perhaps also XRP with its Spot ETF with record inflows!
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