Fidelity announces Bitcoin floor at $65,000

While the crypto sector anticipates a prolonged bullish cycle, supported by the arrival of institutions and a maturing regulatory framework, a major voice is disrupting this consensus. Jurrien Timmer, director of macroeconomic research at Fidelity, talks about a break in pace. According to him, Bitcoin could pause in 2026, not at a peak, but around a technical decline. A projection which calls into question the ambient euphoria and invites us to reconsider the trajectory of the market in the medium term.

Fidelity's macroeconomic reading

In an analysis published on December 12 on the

According to him, this would mark the end of the traditional four-year cycle punctuated by halvings. “It may well be that bitcoin has already completed a new four-year cycle phase linked to halving”he wrote, while emphasizing: “Bitcoin winters have typically lasted about a year, so I have a feeling 2026 could be an off year for crypto. Support is between $65,000 and $75,000 ». For 2026, he predicts a period of stagnation, or even decline, rather than continued bullishness.

This reading is based on macroeconomic models that Timmer regularly mobilizes to interpret the evolution of BTC, in particular:

• The demand curve, used to analyze the large-scale adoption of bitcoin, as an exponentially growing technology asset;

• The S-curve, which suggests a maturity phase after the initial explosion, marking a transition to a more stable, but less dynamic, market;

• Historical analysis of cycles: the precedents “crypto winters” lasted about a year, which reinforces his hypothesis of a lasting slowdown after this year;

• A return to the mean estimated between $65,000 and $75,000, an area identified as potential technical and psychological support.

By proposing this reading grid, Timmer calls into question a vision that is now dominant in the markets: that of a prolonged super-cycle, fueled by favorable regulations and institutional adoption. His position invites us to consider 2026 not as a delayed peak, but as a consolidation level.

What if the bull market isn't over?

Contrary to this cautious reading, several leading analysts on the contrary envisage an acceleration of the upward cycle beyond 2025, driven by post-crisis normalization and structurally positive fundamentals.

Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, sees in the liquidity shock of October 10, which he describes as an exceptional event, a temporary low point, heralding a new bullish cycle.

“We are going through an exceptional event of extreme liquidation, a real 10 out of 10, which has profoundly destabilized the market”he explained on

This perspective is supported by the trends observed among players like OKX, which is increasing initiatives to integrate traditional finance within crypto-native infrastructures. According to Hong Fang, president of the platform, “the convergence between crypto and traditional finance is no longer a simple hypothesis. It's happening here and now.”.

The rise of regulated products, the legislative implementation of stablecoins and the net long positions on Ether ($475 million, compared to short positions on BTC of 123 million) illustrate a profound reorganization of the market around new catalysts. With this in mind, the pause Fidelity envisions may not happen, or at least be quickly reversed by a return of confidence and capital.

While Fidelity is talking about a downturn in 2026, a massive influx into Bitcoin ETFs is raising hopes of a rebound. Between institutional caution and emerging bullish signals, the market trajectory remains open, driven by contradictory forces.