Could Michael Saylor's Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy Survive the Next Bear Market? Crypto analyst Willy Woo provides reassuring answers, supported by figures. But a risk remains in the longer term.
In brief
- Willy Woo says Strategy will not be forced to liquidate its bitcoins during the next bear market.
- The critical liquidation threshold is around $91,502 for Bitcoin, well below current prices.
- Strategy holds 641,205 BTC, valued at approximately $64 billion.
- A risk of partial liquidation persists if Bitcoin does not perform sufficiently in 2028.
Strategy will escape any Bitcoin liquidation according to Willy Woo
Willy Woo breaks down a growing concern in the crypto community. The analyst says on X that Strategy will not need to touch its bitcoin reserves during the next major market downturn. A position that contrasts with the fears of certain observers.
The key to this resilience? The very structure of Strategy's debt. The company relies primarily on senior convertible bonds.
These instruments provide crucial flexibility: at maturity, Strategy can choose to settle its obligations in cash, common stock, or a combination of the two. A flexibility which removes the specter of forced liquidation.
The numbers speak for themselves. Strategy faces a $1.01 billion deadline on September 15, 2027. To meet it without selling bitcoin, the stock must stay above $183.19. A threshold that corresponds to one bitcoin at $91,502, assuming a net asset value multiple of 1.
On Tuesday, Strategy stock was trading at $245, while bitcoin collapsed below the symbolic threshold of $100,000. Despite this drop, the safety margin remains comfortable.
Analyst Bitcoin Therapist agrees. According to him, “ bitcoin expected to experience catastrophic performance » to force Strategy to sell.
A scenario that Woo considers unlikely : “ It would take an extremely durable bear market for Strategy to execute a selloff. »
The 2028 horizon, a truth test for the Saylor strategy
Paradoxically, it is the absence of an increase that could pose a problem. Woo warns that a “partial liquidation” remains possible if bitcoin fails to gain sufficient value during the bull market anticipated for 2028. A warning that puts the ambient optimism into perspective.
This caution contrasts with the projections of some industry executives. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, and Brian Armstrong, boss of Coinbase, are counting on bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. A goal that would make any liquidation of Strategy purely theoretical.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor multiplies initiatives to strengthen his positions. Strategy has just filed an application for an initial public offering of shares denominated in euros, targeting European institutional investors.
The company plans to issue 3.5 million shares at 100 euros each, with an annual dividend of 10%. A geographical diversification which testifies to Saylor's ambition.
Confidence that stands the test of turbulence
Woo's analysis comes at a pivotal moment. Strategy stock lost nearly 6.7% in one day to its lowest level in seven months.
Bitcoin fell by more than 10% over seven days. Figures which fuel doubts about the sustainability of Strategy's aggressive accumulation model.
In short, Strategy's financial structure offers it robust protection against the vagaries of the next bear market. However, the long-term viability of this strategy will depend on bitcoin's ability to maintain exceptional performance cycle after cycle. Michael Saylor's bet remains intact, but the stakes rise as reserves pile up.
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