Bitcoin is facing a new setback, shaken by a market that is reevaluating its expectations. Indeed, the release of a strong economic report in the United States strengthened the dollar, reducing the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Such a reaction led to a correction below $93,000. This temporarily slowed the crypto's bullish momentum. However, Grayscale remains confident and considers this decline as a temporary turbulence rather than a reversal of trend. According to Zach Pandl, head of research at the company, the strong dollar and restrictive monetary policy are temporarily weighing on the market, but bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong. With increasing institutional adoption and a changing regulatory environment, the upward trajectory appears intact, despite short-term fluctuations.
The weight of macroeconomic factors on bitcoin
On January 10, the publication of a report on employment in the United States caused shock waves on the financial markets. Contrary to expectations, the figures highlighted a robust economy, which dampened hopes for rapid monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. In response, the U.S. dollar strengthened, a move that immediately weighed on assets seen as alternatives to traditional currencies, including bitcoin.
Under the effect of this pressure, the world's leading crypto fell below $93,000. Such a situation erased part of the gains recorded at the start of the year. According to Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, this decline is the result of an unfavorable macroeconomic context. “Bitcoin appears to be held back by the strength of the dollar, which is rising due to tighter monetary policy from the Fed and the threat of new tariffs,” explain-he. At the same time, the futures markets have revised their forecasts, and now only give a 3% probability to a rate cut in January. This lack of monetary support reduces the attractiveness of risky assets, and temporarily slows the upward momentum of bitcoin.
A rebound driven by structural dynamics
Despite the pressure exerted by the macroeconomic context, several factors continue to support an upward trend for bitcoin. Among them, political change in the United States could play a decisive role. Donald Trump, elected in November 2024, has reaffirmed his intention to make the United States a world leader in cryptos. His administration plans to ease regulations by appointing industry-friendly leaders to federal agencies. This direction could encourage a climate more conducive to innovation and adoption of cryptos.
Another key driver is the rise of Bitcoin ETFs. In November 2024, these exchange-traded funds surpassed the $100 billion mark in assets under management, a strong signal of growing institutional interest. According to Steno Research, this dynamic is expected to increase in 2025, with inflows estimated at an additional $48 billion. Such an infusion of capital could absorb some of the current volatility, boosting bitcoin's legitimacy as a leading financial asset. Some observers, including those at Sygnum Bank, believe that these massive inflows could generate a demand shock, and propel bitcoin to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin fluctuations in response to macroeconomic events are nothing new. However, projections from Grayscale and Steno Research suggest that 2025 could mark a watershed moment for institutional adoption and market structuring. The regulatory environment, driven by a more crypto-friendly administration, could encourage an unprecedented influx of capital. At the same time, the monetary policy of central banks, in particular that of the Federal Reserve, will play a crucial role. A possible easing of interest rates could restore an advantage to risky assets, which would thus strengthen the attractiveness of bitcoin among institutional investors. If these dynamics materialize, the first crypto could quickly regain its momentum and reach new all-time highs in a rapidly changing market.
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