Standard Chartered has just released a forecast that contrasts with the ambient pessimism: Ethereum at $40,000 by 2030, with clear outperformance against Bitcoin. Something to surprise, as ETH continues to have bad news. However, behind this figure lies a solid analysis, and arguments that deserve attention.
In brief
- Standard Chartered predicts Ethereum at $40,000 by 2030, up from around $2,059 today.
- Geoffrey Kendrick estimates that the ETH/BTC ratio could increase from 0.03 to 0.04 this year.
- Tokenization and stablecoins would be the main drivers of this increase.
Standard Chartered relaunches the debate on the future of Ethereum versus Bitcoin
This prediction comes from Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.
During an interview with Milk Road, he defended a strong conviction: Ethereum should capture most of the next wave of institutional adoption, driven by the tokenization of real assets, the rise of stablecoins and the development of DeFi progressively framed by regulations.
For Kendrick, the enthusiasm of institutions for Ethereum is not just a fad. It is explained above all by the solidity of its infrastructure. The main layer of the network has never experienced a major interruption, a decisive criterion for players subject to strict security and operational continuity requirements.
He cites BlackRock as an example: the asset management giant primarily favors deployment on the Ethereum main network, before considering an extension to other blockchains or second-layer solutions.
It also highlights a key indicator: the ratio between the fees generated by the protocol and its market capitalization. The more on-chain activity intensifies, the more this ratio progresses, and the more the price of ETH should logically follow. Today, the ETH/BTC ratio is around 0.03. Kendrick anticipates a move to 0.04 by the end of the year.
By 2030, its projections are unambiguous: bitcoin at $500,000, Ethereum at $40,000. That is to say a notable relative outperformance for ETH against the historic market leader.
Tokenization and DeFi, the two engines that could change everything
The heart of Geoffrey Kendrick's thesis is based on the tokenization of assets. Currently valued at around $300 billion, the stablecoin market could reach $2,000 billion in the coming years.
The logic he defends is implacable. A company that adopts stablecoins for their speed and 24-hour availability will have no interest in leaving the rest of its cash in slow banking infrastructures. The migration to blockchain will therefore take place gradually, but on a massive scale.
Tokenized monetary funds already illustrate this transformation. Still marginal at around $10 billion today, they could reach 750 billion by the end of 2028. Same trajectory for other tokenized assets: their valuation could jump from $40 billion to $2,000 billion over the same period.
In this context, Ethereum stands out as the natural infrastructure of this ecosystem under construction. If the regulatory framework continues to become clearer, a convergence between traditional finance and DeFi becomes credible.
However, the scenario remains far from certain. Ethereum faces several headwinds. Spot ETFs have seen their assets under management fall by around 65% since October 2024.
Furthermore, on Polymarket, a majority of bettors now anticipate that Ethereum could lose its second place to Tether from 2026. Added to this are worrying technical fragilities: a leverage ratio at record levels and a bearish target around $1,250 in the event of a breakdown of support.
In short, the paradox is striking: the stablecoins that Kendrick presents as the main engine of the rise of ETH are precisely those which, today, inflate the capitalization of Tether and weaken the position of Ethereum in the ranking. The big question of 2030 may be playing out now.
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