ETFs, derivatives, capitulation… Bitcoin falls back into a well-known spiral

Impossible to move forward. For several weeks, bitcoin seems mired in a sort of invisible mud pool, stuck between tenuous hope and risk of collapse. Each rebound meets resistance, each decline threatens to deepen the rut a little further. At $91,300, BTC finds neither solid support nor convincing buying momentum. Between macro drifts and technical signals at half mast, the entire crypto industry seems to be holding its breath, like a market that has become excessively cautious. What if the crypto winter never ended?

The $96K–106K zone, the last bastion of a bitcoin under pressure

Since mid-November, the price of bitcoin has fallen back below the 0.75 quantile band, an area that Glassnode analysts consider critical. Concretely, this means that more than 25% of the supply in circulation is now in latent loss. This same signal marked the start of the great crypto winter of 2022. Suffice to say that the market is no longer laughing.

Glassnode drives the point home :

The price briefly stabilized above the True Market Mean, but the overall structure is very reminiscent of that of the first quarter of 2022: more than 25% of supply is currently in loss, realized losses are increasing, and sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks is exacerbated.

Glassnode, Week 48, 2025

Meanwhile, the IBIT ETF records its sixth consecutive week of net outflows. This represents more than $2.7 billion in withdrawals. What about altcoins? No better. Ether is following the same trajectory, struggling to stay above $4,800. Solana, for his part, is clearly running out of steam after his lightning rally in the fall. The entire crypto market is stalling.

Derivatives: when crypto traders sell hope before it is born

As for derivatives, the observation is clear: it is the reign of prudence. Open interest on futures contracts plunged in November. Implied volatility is in free fall: from 57% to 48% on short contracts. And the funding? Almost neutral. The message is clear: no leverage, no thrill.

In its report, Glassnode notes:

This neutral to slightly negative funding structure indicates a more balanced derivatives market, where the absence of overcrowded long positions reduces downside fragility. It could even pave the way for more constructive positions if demand were to stabilize.

The options market reflects the same decline. Rather than betting on a bullish explosion, traders sell calls. The $100K level remains a mirage: the premiums sold at this strike far exceed the premiums purchased. Want to blow up the ceiling? On the back burner.

In this atmosphere, altcoins are no exception. Even leveraged pairs trade sluggishly. A year ago, the crypto ecosystem vibrated with every announcement. Today, is it dead calm, or rather, the calm before the storm?

Crypto market: towards generalized inertia?

Off-chain signals are hardly more reassuring. The Cumulative Volume Delta is in negative territory on Binance, proof that buyers no longer have control. Even Coinbase, the traditional barometer of US appetite, no longer emits positive signals.

And yet, some long-term investors continue to take profits. The SOPR ratio at 1.43 shows that they are still selling with margin. But this margin is crumbling. As in 2022. It seems that the crypto market is playing a song that has already been heard.

The entire sector finds itself caught between two waters: degraded fundamentals, flagging enthusiasm and volatility trapped in a narrow mold. Buyers no longer have reason to rush. Sellers are waiting for a macro trigger. Everyone is waiting. And that’s what’s most worrying.

The 5 weak signals that flash

• Bitcoin's current price is $91,329, down from the summer high;
• 7.1 million BTC are currently held at a loss, a level not seen since September 2023;
• 6 consecutive weeks of withdrawals from the IBIT ETF (more than $2.7 billion withdrawn);
• Implied volatility on BTC options fell almost 10% in 10 days;
• Spot volume is continuously declining on Coinbase, Binance and other major platforms.

As if that were not enough, the bitcoin profitability indicator has just reached a low point not seen since 2023. A threshold that had not been crossed for more than two years. A reminder that, in this phase of stagnation, even the psychological resistance of holders begins to erode. A detail? No. One more signal that the crypto market could be at the dawn of a new prolonged decompression phase.