The Chinese AI Deepseek caused an earthquake within American tech. Geopolitical power relations have just changed.
Deepseek supremacy
Deepseek is a Chinese startup founded in 2023 specializing in LLM (language model). His model of AI R1 equals the performance of the O1 O1 of Open AI, the recognized leader in the racing at the strong AI.
R1 surpasses the performance of O1 (Chatgpt) in most coding, reasoning, mathematics, etc. Launched only a month and a half after the O1 of Open AI, R1 rocked the whole world for four reasons.
- Cost of creating the model 50 times lower.
- Cost per million of data units processed 20 times lower.
- Total cost of the creation of the model of less than $ 6 million (against the $ 10 billion for Openai).
- The R1 model code is open source!
Deepseek uses a new AI training method requiring less data. This is strengthening learning. R1 learns and improves itself, unlike traditional supervised learning.
With 671 billion parameters, R1 is one of the most imposing AI models for a training of only 2.8 million hours of GPU. The Meta Llama 3 required 30.8 million hours of GPU, 11 times more.
Even better, while the O1 IA trained with the NVIDIA H100 GPU, Deepseek uses the Nvidia H800, a weakened version of the H100 (American embargo). All made with a team of less than 200 people, not thousands.
Being open source, anyone can install R1 at home. However, it will take fairly efficient equipment requiring an investment of around 6,000 euros. Perfect to protect your privacy …
Furthermore, while the use of O1 O1 O1 O1 (online) costs $ 200 per month, R1 is free. For professional and specialized use, the price per million of processed data units is 97 % lower!
Stock market bath in ny
China has taken the lead in the AI ​​race and the stock market fall in the United States is there to confirm it. The American semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia has lost nearly $ 600 billion in market capitalization (-20 %). It is the biggest daily loss in the history of the US scholarship. This loss represents the equivalent of the value of LVMH, Total Energies and BNP Paribas combined.
In all, 1,000 billion has already gone up in smoke if we add the falls of Microsoft Meta and others. Is the AI ​​bubble exploding?
Objective partly fulfilled for the 14ᵉ Chinese five-year plan which had made the AI ​​and semiconductors a priority. The next five-year plan (2025-2030) expects an annual growth of 20 % in the AI ​​sector. It will then represent 1,000 billion yuan in 2030 ($ 139 billion)
ASML estimates that it is 15 years ahead in the manufacture of semiconductors. We will see … succeeding in reproducing the following machine is the only obstacle to China's technological supremacy:
Anxiety is palpable across the Atlantic. Donald Trump threatened TSMC with murderous customs taxes. However TSMC manufactures more than 90 % of the most advanced chips (3 Nm). It is a question of putting pressure to prevent it from delivering high -performance GPUs to the Chinese rival to slow down its advances in the field of AI.
But is it not already too late? The performance of a higher magnitude of Deepseek suggest that the American technological embargo strategy does not work and that it even turned against them by forcing China to innovate even faster.
Military AI and Supremacy
AI is so important that it could change geopolitical power relations. Think Tank RAND advance that “Nations around the world could see their power increase or decrease according to the way they develop artificial intelligence (AI) »».
Indeed, the AI ​​promises these famous productivity gains without which the Ponzi Fiat turns into an inflationary debt of debt. That said, your servant remains skeptical. The economy is above all a question of energy. An autonomous truck will always need energy to move forward, whatever the AI ​​that leads it. AI will not change the face of the world.
On the other hand, AI greatly upsets the way of wage war. American generals are aware that the new capacities of China in terms of AI could give it an asymmetrical military advantage.
From the autonomous war (drones, robots) to cyberfense, nations having one step ahead in the race for AI will have a certain military advantage. You just have to look at the Ukrainian conflict and the use of DOS doped at AI to persuade it. AI reshapes the art of war. Today, the ability to analyze and exploit in real time the greatest number of data can compensate for numerical inferiority on the battlefield.
The Minister of Ukrainian Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov the claim: “We are here today a kind of training field for the use of artificial intelligence »».
Decision assistance, autonomy of weapons systems, information collection, logistics, cybersecurity, everything goes. AI can offer superiority in many areas.
Taiwan between the hammer and the anvil
The potential advantages created by AI result in international tensions taking the form of embargoes from which the United States use to preserve its competitive advantage.
The export restrictions of advanced AI chips and machines used to make them constantly multiply. Hence the (paid) efforts of China so as not to be dependent on the technology provided by hostile competitors.
That said, there is still a long way to go. The technological gap in physical manufacture of fleas remains important.
The situation should therefore remain difficult for Taiwan and South Korea which have a monopoly on the manufacture of peak semiconductors like (TSMC and Samsung). These two countries are confronted with the challenge of maintaining trade relations with the West and China while protecting their own economic interests.
Goldman Sachs has identified several second knives very invested in AI and therefore likely to have their say in the international geopolitical arena. These include the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan and India.
Taiwan is probably the country with the most to lose if the tensions between Washington and Beijing reach a point of no return. The black scenario would be for the United States to force Taiwan to no longer sell any china china.
Xi Jinping could then be tempted to invade Taiwan, which would still bring us closer to a third world war …
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