For several months, investors' eyes have been turning to the crypto ETH, hoping for a significant jump in its value. However, the forecasts do not seem to be working in favor of the smart contract giant. According to onchain options protocol Derive, the chance of Ethereum hitting $5,000 by the end of 2024 is less than 10%. A finding that is surprising, especially since the massive inflows into spot Ether ETFs seem insufficient to reverse the trend.
The numbers don't lie, but the crypto market remains complex
According to data from Derive, the probability of Ethereum reaching the coveted $5,000 mark has oscillated, reaching a peak of 16% before dropping to around 8%.
This downward revision reflects a difficult economic reality for ETH, which requires an increase of 37% compared to its current price to hope to cross this threshold. Despite daily ETF flows of around $305 million, the market remains undecided.
An apparent balance between call and put options suggests neutral sentiment among investors, says Sean Dawson, researcher at Derive.
This relative disinterest contrasts with the enthusiasm displayed by certain traders, including CoinMambawho maintain an aggressive $5,000 target for the crypto. But between optimism and reality, the path seems strewn with pitfalls.
A “supply crisis” in ambush?
ETFs, seen as the driver of a possible explosion in the price of ETH, are also pointed to as catalysts of a future “supply crisis”. Indeed, the data reveals that large players in traditional finance (TradFi) are massively appropriating ETH at low prices, thus reducing availability on open markets.
This could, paradoxically, limit short-term price increases while building longer-term potential.
Eric Conner, a well-known contributor in the Ethereum ecosystem, and Anthony Sassano, a crypto educator, share this view. For them, the massive flows seen in ETFs are a sign of strategic accumulation by TradFi, rather than an immediate response to demand. This scenario, if confirmed, could cause Ethereum's value to rise in the coming years, although it reduces the chances of a significant rally before 2025.
While some analysts still anticipate a historic peak, market signals show continued volatility and muted expectations. The challenge for investors will be to navigate these divergent forecasts and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Thus, Ethereum, with its undeniable potential, remains faced with a complex environment where caution and anticipation will be the key words. If $5,000 seems out of reach for this year, the future of ETH, like crypto itself, is an adventure that does not lack twists and turns. Discover also the three US economic data that could shake up the market.
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