The crypto market is going through a period of severe turbulence, where price fluctuations are testing investor confidence. Indeed, at the heart of this uncertain dynamic, Solana (SOL) stands out as one of the most closely watched assets. Currently, a major reorganization has taken place in the structure of its holders, which reveals a significant transfer of tokens from old long-term investors to new entrants. According to on-chain data, this redistribution reflects profit-taking by historical investors, which marks the end of a previous bullish cycle. At the same time, a new generation of investors is showing marked optimism, and is banking on Solana's potential to bounce back despite a volatile context. This transition reflects divergent perspectives for the future of the project: on the one hand, a renewed confidence carried by the newcomers; on the other, increased caution, fueled by the technical challenges and uncertainties to come.
Long-term investors: a transition of trust
The recent rally in Solana (SOL) has caused a notable change in its holder distribution. According to on-chain data provided by Glassnode, investors who held their positions between 1 and 2 years significantly reduced their share. This went from 48% in June to less than 5% today. Such a decline is mainly explained by profit-taking, a usual practice among historical investors after a bullish phase.
This wave of liquidations constitutes a major shift, which frees up a significant amount of tokens. In addition, these exits have allowed a new generation of investors to establish themselves in the market. Unlike their predecessors, these new players display a resolutely optimistic visionbecause they are banking on the potential of Solana to maintain its upward trajectory despite the ambient volatility.
At the same time, medium-term investors, who have held their positions for 6 to 12 months, have seen their share increase to reach 27% of the total supply. This strengthening illustrates renewed confidence in the project and demonstrates a strategic repositioning. Such a group of investors, often perceived as less speculative than short-term players, seems ready to support Solana in its future growth.
The arrival of these new holders and the rise of medium-term investors reflect an in-depth restructuring of the SOL holder base. This transition demonstrates a conviction shared by recent players, convinced that the potential of the Solana blockchain remains intact, despite recent market adjustments. Conversely, it also highlights the weight of old bull cycles, where historical investors seize the opportunity to secure their gains.
The technical challenges and risk of token unlock in 2025
Despite an undeniable renewed optimism around Solana (SOL), some experts are warning of a major obstacle in the medium term. Chris Burniske, recognized analyst and partner at PlaceHolder, points to the scheduled unlocking of 11.2 million SOL tokens in March 2025. Such a release, which represents 2.3% of the total supply, could cause significant selling pressure on the market. According to Burniske, many investors are already anticipating this event, which helps keep Solana in a consolidation phase. This additional pressure risks increasing volatility in the short term if holders seek to sell their tokens to avoid a price drop.
From a technical point of view, Solana is currently at a critical level. The price is struggling to stay above the key support of $215, a key barrier according to several observers. Crossing this resistance would constitute a strong signal to reverse the downward trend observed in recent days. Conversely, a failure to maintain this position could result in a pullback to lower levels, notably around $194 or even $172, in line with the EMA 200 moving average.
However, not all observers share this caution. For Ali Martinez, renowned analyst in the crypto ecosystem, Solana could take a much more optimistic trajectory. Martinez bases his analysis on the formation of a bullish “Cup and Handle” pattern, traditionally associated with a bullish market reversal. According to him, this technical configuration could propel the price of SOL towards $600 by the end of the year. In the longer term, he does not rule out an even more ambitious scenario, where Solana would reach up to $4,000, driven by renewed investor enthusiasm and overall upward momentum.
Between caution and optimism, Solana remains at a crossroads. The network's success will depend on its ability to absorb structural challenges, such as token unlocking, and capitalize on technical opportunities and the growth of its ecosystem. The next few months promise to be decisive, and investors will closely monitor market signals to gauge the strength of this dynamic.
This renewal of Solana holders constitutes a major milestone for the blockchain ecosystem. If new investors show increased confidence in the potential of the network, the unlocking of the 11.2 million tokens planned for 2025 remains a major challenge which could weigh on price stability. To overcome this pressure, Solana will have to demonstrate its ability to absorb this additional supply without forgetting to consider its growth. In the longer term, the future of the project rests on its technological robustness and the support of its community, supported by a growing ecosystem and innovative projects. However, in a still volatile market, investors will need to navigate carefully between the bullish outlook and the risks of temporary corrections.
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