The cryptos market alternates between spectacular flights and steep corrections, and Solana is no exception. After a heckled start to the year, marked by exacerbated volatility, the ground token lost 17.2 % in just three days, which brings its price to 235 dollars. This fall, although brutal, does not alone summarize the situation of the ecosystem. Behind the decline in the price, contrasting signals emerge. On the one hand, the on-chain activity collapses with a 40 %drop in transactions volumes, which weakens major platforms like Orca (-62 %) and Meteora (-45 %). On the other hand, the Total Value Locked (TVL) jumped by 27 %, and exceeds Ethereum and BNB Chain, thanks to platforms like Raydium and Binance Staked Sol. Thus, investors still hesitate to bet on a real rebound. Three key factors will allow you to know if Solana can reverse the trend and regain its historical heights.
Sous Pressure Solana: a decrease in critical activity
Solana, long perceived as one of the most serious challengers in Ethereum, is going through a period of critical slowdown. Indeed, its on-chain activity contracted 40 %in a week, a much more marked decline than that observed on BNB Chain (-1 %) and Ethereum (-10 %). This fall in activity has particularly affected several major protocols. Meteora saw its volumes collapse by 45 %, Orca of 62 %, and Lifinity of 53 %.
Such a decline testifies to a shortness of breath of Solana's dynamism, which has established itself in recent months as a privileged terrain for decentralized applications. Less exchanges on the network means lower liquidity and reduced economic activity, which can slow down the adoption of new projects and weaken the attractiveness of the protocol to its competitors.
However, this slump does not affect the entire ecosystem. Some platforms continue to attract users. Pump.fun, specializing in the launch of the same, displays a 24 % increase over the same period. Raydium, the main dex of the ecosystem, maintains its leadership with a weekly volume of $ 35.1 billion. This contrast sheds light on a paradoxical phenomenon: if the global activity flexes, certain specific segments remain dynamic, in particular those linked to speculative assets such as the same.
Can such a fragmentation ask a key question: Can Solana rely on these pockets of resilience to durably relaunch its attractiveness, or are these isolated successes insufficient to reverse the general trend?
An still fragile rebound: a lack of conviction of investors
Despite The drop in on-chain activitya key indicator suggests that Solana retains a certain attractiveness. The Total Value Locked (TVL) jumped 27 %in a month, and largely surpasses Ethereum, with a 9 %withdrawal, and BNB Chain, which has lost only 1 %. This strengthening of the TVL reflects increased confidence in the network infrastructure, especially in the stuking and decentralized finance (DEFI) sectors. Jito and Raydium recorded an increase of 29 % of their deposits, while Binance Staked Sol increased by 52 %. This influx of capital suggests a start for stabilization after the recent market correction.
However, this upturn is not enough to reassure all investors. The derivative market shows a measured enthusiasm. The premium on soil term contracts, which reflects the confidence of investors in the increase in long -term price, has briefly reached 12 %, before falling to 6 %. This withdrawal testifies to lasting prudence, especially since the recent rise in the soil price (+21 % over a month) seems mainly fueled by speculation around the same and the launch of the “Trump” token. This phenomenon challenges the solidity of this recovery.
In order for the ground to find its highest, three key factors will have to go into play. First, the migration of the stables of Tron to Solana could generate increased demand for the token, by strengthening the liquidity of the ecosystem. Then, the development of web3 applications and the integration of artificial intelligence on the network could offer it a strategic positioning in the long term. Finally, the confidence of institutional investors must imperatively recover. This will require tangible evidence of network resilience, in particular by more marked adoption within large companies and a revival of volumes on decentralized platforms.
Solana is thus at a decisive turn. If its TVL and the interest in stuking show a positive dynamic, the membership of institutional investors remains fragile. The blockchain must now prove that its rise in power is based on solid bases, and not on passenger fashion effects.
In the short term, Solana sends contradictory signals. On the one hand, its ecosystem is strengthened, increased by an increase in the total Value Locked and an increasing interest in Staking. On the other hand, the market remains cautious, slowed down by an on-chain activity in decline and a craze still too centered on speculation. To hope to reconnect with its historical heights, Solana will have to prove that its rebound is based on solid bases, and attract more institutional investors by consolidating its adoption in the web3. The potential is there, but the trajectory remains uncertain.
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