Crypto: Bitwise identifies 3 major obstacles before a new record

What if 2026 became the year of peaks for the crypto market? Or, on the contrary, that of a new setback? In the crypto-sphere, predictions are flying. For some analysts, all the lights are almost green. For others, three major obstacles must still be overcome before imagining a lasting surge. This is precisely what Matt Hougan, investment director at Bitwise, puts forward in an analysis that is causing a lot of discussion in financial circles.

A trauma behind us? The crypto market is finally breathing

On October 10, 2025, the crypto ecosystem experienced a historic shake-up. In 24 hours, $19 billion in futures positions were liquidated. This shock froze hopes of recovery and raised fears of a systemic bankruptcy of major players.

Matt Hougan returns to this episode with lucidity:

One of the reasons crypto struggled to rebound in the fourth quarter was that investors feared that one of these big players would be forced to cease operations, a process usually involving the forced sale of assets. These potential sales hung over the market like a thick fog.

But the beginning of 2026 has clearly changed the situation. Bitcoin and Ethereum climb 7%, Dogecoin soars 29%. The atmosphere is relaxing in the crypto-sphere. Fears of a massive liquidation? Widely dissipated. If a company had to fold, it would have done so before the end of 2025. This is largely why the market is restarting: investors have put the trauma of October in the rearview mirror.

First obstacle overcome. Trust is returning to the crypto community.

The CLARITY Act: American crypto up against the legislative wall

Second issue: regulation in the United States. The CLARITY Act is a fundamental bill to establish clear rules for cryptos. It covers DeFi, stablecoins and conflicts of interest. The Senate plans to examine the text on January 15.

But the process remains complex. The Banking and Agriculture committees have yet to harmonize their versions. The political climate remains polarized. However, without this text, the regulatory stability of cryptos in the USA remains precarious. In the event of a political change, everything could change.

David Sacks, advisor to the White House on cryptos, is confident: the United States would be “closer than ever” to passing the law. In terms of predictive markets, the chances of voting are estimated at 46% by May, 82% by the end of the year.

An “orange” signal, therefore. The crypto sector is scrutinizing every advance in the text, because a clear law could unlock the massive arrival of institutional investors.

Wall Street, the silent arbiter of destiny

The third condition pointed out by Bitwise: the solidity of the stock markets. Although crypto evolves independently, a crash on Wall Street would brutally impact the perception of overall risk.

Experts agree: no need for a stock market bull, but avoiding a 20% fall in the S&P 500 is essential. Currently, the probabilities of a positive scenario are high: predictive markets give an 80% chance of an increase in stocks in 2026.

However, concerns remain: potential AI bubbles, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation. Matt Hougan remains cautious: he does not make predictions on stocks, but knows that a collapse would break the momentum.

Stability does not mean euphoria, but confidence. For crypto, Wall Street plays a role of catalyst or brake, even if silent.

TO REMEMBER: 5 key facts to understand the challenges of 2026

• On October 10, 2025, $19 billion was liquidated in crypto futures markets;
• The CLARITY Act, a crucial project in the United States, will be examined in the Senate on January 15;
• The crypto market capitalization is $3,201 billion at the start of 2026;
• Kalshi estimates an 82% chance that the CLARITY Act will pass by the end of 2026;
• The S&P 500 has an 80% chance of rising this year.

2026 starts on a hopeful note for the crypto industry. But three signals must align: post-crisis appeasement, regulatory clarification in the United States and stock market stability. If these conditions are met, some analysts estimate that bitcoin could even double in value this year. An exciting promise, but one that requires caution and lucidity.