Pavel Durov’s release has sparked mixed reactions in the crypto community. Many strongly believed that the Telegram CEO would remain in prison in France for a long time. However, against all odds, Durov was released on bail on August 28, upsetting the predictions of many bettors on Polymarket, a crypto betting platform, who saw their hopes of winnings disappear.
Telegram: Early release confuses punters
Toncoin crashed by 20% after Durov's arrest, too bad! But also note that Pavel Durov's early release caught many punters off guard on Polymarket, a very popular crypto prediction platform.
These punters believed that French authorities would extend the detention of the Telegram CEOmainly because of his immense wealth and multiple citizenships, including that of the United Arab Emirates, a country that does not extradite its citizens.
Yet, On August 28, Durov was released. after having poured ua 5 million euro depositThis turnaround has cost dearly those who were banking on continued detention, causing them lose a total of $270,000.
In the crypto world, where Durov's every move is scrutinized, this news had the effect of a bomb. A certain “Champ”, seasoned gamblerhad however anticipated this outcome and pocketed a whopping $56,638 betting on the August releaseproving that sometimes instinct trumps caution.
Crypto: An industry shaken by the volatility of prediction markets
The Durov case has highlighted the Risks associated with betting on the crypto marketwhere volatility reigns supreme. On Polymarket, The chances of release in August were estimated at only 30% a few days before the announcement.
However, these figures jumped to 50% in the hours leading up to the release, catching many punters off guard. The majority had bet on prolonged detentionbased on oscillating probabilities between 75% and 90% for release after September.
The case illustrates the dangers of prediction markets in the crypto world, where even the safest bets can collapse in the blink of an eye. Noting that Toncoin and Ethereum have caused the market to fall, analysts say.
At the same time, a contract on Polymarket estimates Only 6% probability that Durov will leave France before mid-Septemberwhich shows that, despite the uncertainties, confidence in compliance with the conditions of release remains relatively high.
Pavel Durov, although released on bail, could still face a sentence of up to 20 years in prison, according to experts.
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