Pass, don’t pass, pass, don’t pass… Suspense reigns in crypto at the moment, against a backdrop of political tensions in the United States. Between Republicans and Democrats, the CLARITY Act is torn on all sides. Traders and analysts now see a probable failure for this grandiose regulatory project.
In brief
- Polymarket’s odds of passing the CLARITY Act have fallen to 24-32%, an all-time low.
- The Senate remains stuck on ethical safeguards against Donald Trump’s crypto enrichment.
- The Department of Justice is concerned that section 604 of the bill could hamper money laundering prosecutions.
- The Republican majority, weakened by Graham’s death, struggled to gather the necessary 60 votes.
82% in February, 24% today: punters no longer believe it
On February 19, 2026, Polymarket bettors gave the CLARITY Act an 82% chance. Today, they only give 24 to 32%. The likelihood of adoption of the crypto market structure bill has never been lower.
This downtrend has increased since the beginning of May. The Senate’s legislative calendar is shrinking and negotiations on ethics are stalling. Congress’ summer break is fast approaching, further narrowing the voting window.
However, Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) assures that the Senate is close to an agreement. The text could be adopted next week, according to his statements. An optimism that the markets clearly do not share. The gap between political speeches and market signals is striking.
Do punters anticipate failure or a simple postponement to 2027? The question remains. One thing seems certain: trust is crumbling.
Safeguards, money laundering and fragile majority: the CLARITY Act caught in a stranglehold
The CLARITY Act was intended to clarify crypto regulation. It has become the symbol of political divisions and conflicts of interest. Democratic senators, led by Ruben Gallego, are demanding ethical safeguards against Donald Trump’s crypto enrichment.
At the same time, the Department of Justice is concerned about potential flaws in the fight against money laundering. The DOJ believes that Section 604 of the bill, which protects decentralized developers, could hinder prosecutions.
The Republican majority, already fragile, is struggling to gather the 60 votes needed. The death of Senator Lindsey Graham and the hospitalization of Mitch McConnell complicate the calculation of votes.
The lack of public impact after Trump’s meeting with Republican senators reinforces the ambient pessimism. The amendments in the works could address the DOJ’s concerns. But time is running out dangerously.
XRP, Bullish, WisdomTree: the crypto industry still believes in a miracle
Despite market pessimism, the crypto industry remains mobilized. Executives from Bullish, WisdomTree and Coin Center are calling for urgent regulatory clarification.
“ Clarity is not a call for deregulation, but for good regulation by the right regulator said Sarah Aberg of Nova Labs. Bullish’s Randy Abernethy believes companies need a “rulebook” to avoid offshoring.
The CLARITY Act could trigger a rally in two phases for XRP. A first phase driven by individual investors, then a second driven by institutional adoption. Without a law, XRP and other cryptos remain in legal uncertainty. Congress’s summer break is inexorably approaching.
If the CLARITY Act is not passed by then, it could be delayed until 2027. The markets say no. Politicians say maybe. The industry is still growing. Who’s telling the truth?
Key figures of the standoff:
- Probability of adoption: 24 to 32%;
- Peak odds: 82% in February;
- Next deadline: Congress summer break;
- XRP price at the time of writing: $1.09.
The Democrats are not giving up. Elizabeth Warren has just played her last blow against the CLARITY Act, adding another stone in the garden of Trump’s pro-crypto team. The legislative fight continues.
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