Many crypto analysts agree on one point: bitcoin must achieve an increase of 6.24% to avoid an annual close in the red. Currently trading around $87,000 to $90,000, the end of the year looks set to be tense for the flagship crypto.
In brief
- Bitcoin must rise 6.24% to avoid a historic post-halving annual red close.
- The break in its moving average and macro uncertainty are holding back any significant rebound before 2026.
Bitcoin facing a critical threshold for 2025
The symbolic threshold of $93,374 divides analysts. According to some, a bitcoin rises by 6.24% would be enough to repaint the annual candle green. The crypto market, however, remains unstable after an ATH of over $125,000 in October, followed by a 30% drop in November.
Bitcoin even hit a low at $80,000 according to the graphicsthus breaking its major technical support: the 365-day moving average. This structural break, never observed so clearly since 2023, fuels the fear of a lasting reversal.
According to analyst Nic Puckrin, bitcoin has three days to avoid a red close. In case of failure, he could breaking a post-halving performance cycle remained intact for over a decade. Enough to accentuate the fear among BTC hodlers.
Macroeconomics: the Fed slows down the momentum of bitcoin
The Fed's rate cut plays a role in the partial rebound of BTC in 2025. We are referring to three successive cuts of 25 basis points which temporarily revived the appetite for risk.
Jerome Powell's intervention in December unfortunately cast doubt. Result: only 18.8% of crypto investors anticipate a further interest rate cut in January.
This uncertainty weighs on the dynamics of bitcoin. The absence of incoming flows could in fact prevent any rise in bitcoin in the short term. The correlation with monetary policies therefore remains strong.
Unless there is an express rebound, bitcoin could end the year below its historical standards. The market is wondering: a simple bullish pause or the start of a new bearish cycle? The answer may come as soon as January.
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