Bitcoin wipes out its entire 2025 rise and gets dangerously close to the CME gap

The end of the tunnel still seems far away for bitcoin. While some were hoping for a technical rebound or healthy consolidation, the crypto market is mainly showing signs of exhaustion. The technical thresholds are giving way one after the other, and investor morale is wavering. As BTC pulls back, the most optimistic projections fade, giving way to prolonged correction scenarios. The data, tweets and analysts converge on a chilling observation: the trend is no longer bullish.

Beneath the surface, bitcoin breaks a key threshold and plunges crypto-trader morale

By losing its 50-week moving average, bitcoin has not only crossed a price line: it has awakened the old demons of the crypto market. This threshold, rarely broken in the history of BTC, has often marked the passage into a zone of lasting turbulence.

For The Swing Trader, the breakup is symbolic:

Bitcoin has officially lost the 50-week moving average for the fourth time in its history. Even though bitcoin has broken this support, it is now much closer to a bottom than a top. I expect a low point soon, probably near the CME gap.

The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 10/100, the lowest level for 2025. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades sees this as a climate comparable to the implosion of FTX. However, there is no indication of an immediate recovery. On the contrary, some like @Roman_Trading are already mentioning a $76,000 scenario. And this major breakout is accompanied by a worrying misalignment with other markets.

Bitcoin is no longer correlated to gold and reacts like a leveraged tech stock, observes The Kobeissi Letter.

CME Gap and risk zone: crypto whales set a trap between $88K and $92K

Since April, a gaping hole has been waiting to be filled in CME futures contracts: the famous “CME Gap” between $91,900 and $92,500. This area acts like a magnet. Many see it as an obligatory, almost mechanical passage. Hardy (@Degen_Hardy) is clear:

There is a clear CME gap between $91,900 and $92,500, and you already know how this play works. Whales want their orders executed before the next market leg.

In this dangerous interval, Binance whales have already placed large orders between $88,500 and $92,000, according to BitBull. For crypto traders, it is therefore time to be cautious… or to hunt for liquidity. Michael van de Poppe, meanwhile, dreams of a return above $94,000 as a signal of a reversal.

But between measured optimism and relentless technical, the market remains suspended from massive sell orders and uncertain rebound zones. One thing is certain: as long as the gap is not filled, bearish scenarios will remain dominant.

A worrying death cross on bitcoin, a macro context that chills the blood of crypto investors

In an unstable macroeconomic climate, technical signals worsen the situation. The “death cross” is feared. It occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average.

In this context, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget warns:

We view bitcoin's recent death cross, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, as a bearish technical signal. Historically, this pattern can sometimes herald local bottoms followed by short-term rebounds, but it has also preceded deeper corrections during prolonged bear phases.

And while bitcoin is losing its luster, classic assets like American stocks are displaying insolent serenity. The contrast is striking. Gold is climbing, bond yields are rising, but crypto is faltering. BTC has never been so uncorrelated from indices.

THE Kobeissi Letter sums up : the current fall is isolated, without impact on traditional markets, and is explained by massive liquidations rather than by an identifiable macro event.

Quantified benchmarks on the current climate

• Bitcoin is trading around $93,621 at the time of writing;
• The Fear & Greed index fell to 10/100, its lowest level of the year;
• The CME Gap between $91,900 and $92,500 remains intact since April;
• The capitalization of the crypto market fell by 1,100 billion dollars in 41 days, or 27 billion per day (source: Kobeissi Letter);
• The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq reaches 0.80, a near record level since 2022.

While the market seems to be playing for time, the hemorrhage is not limited to bitcoin. ETFs linked to BTC also recorded net outflows of $1.1 billion, fueling a climate of widespread concern in the crypto universe.