The evolution of the price of bitcoin in 2025 will depend on three main parameters. Macroeconomics, geopolitics and the arrival of nation states.
Macro Pane
Despite the optimism and enthusiasm surrounding the creation of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the US budget will not return to balance.
Despite the constantly renewed promises, it is a safe bet that the debt (and therefore the money supply) will continue to grow at the same rate. That is to say 7 to 8% per year. DOGE savings will likely only have a marginal impact on the deficit.
However, this combo [Fuite en avant de l’endettement / Raréfaction des ressources énergétiques] is the main driver of bitcoin's appreciation. Sluggish productivity (quantity of things produced per person) coupled with ever-increasing deficits can only be inflationary.
Remember that cumulative inflation since the start of 2021 amounts to 25% on both sides of the Atlantic! An inflation that ordinary people suffer head-on (for lack of real estate, works of art, stock market shares, etc.). Hence the growing interest in the simple but effective bitcoin strategy.
In 2024, the US M2 money supply increased by 3.6%. This growth is expected to accelerate further in 2025, knowing that the long-term trend is 7%. It will come from falling rates which will allow more households and businesses to borrow.
How much inflation in 2025?
Inflation was close to 3% in 2024 in the United States. The increase in energy production promised by Donald Trump could boost productivity and calm inflation.
Indeed: Productivity = Machines = Energy = Oil.
Increasing energy production relaxes energy and food prices. However, it is not enough to sign decrees to make oil flow. This maximum energy production will take time, if it comes to fruition at all…
The fact is that the peak of conventional oil (cheap to come out of the ground) dates from 1971 in the United States. Shale oil is much more expensive and the peak already seems to be around the corner. So, unless we sell gas at a high price to Europe, there will be no miracle.
In the opposite scenario (annexation of Canada and Greenland to extract oil?…), managing to produce more energy will justify the continued reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
All that said, even if consumer prices decline, make no mistake: asset inflation will persist due to the relentless increase in the money supply.
This is how the fiat system is a ponzi which must inflate the money supply perpetually. This system is neither good nor bad. It is surely even the least bad given that humanity is always evolving towards the most efficient systems.
In normal times (30 glorious years), wages manage to keep up thanks to the increase in productivity. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case. The fruits of the lower branches (conventional oil) were picked…
But back to Bitcoin.
Strategic reserve
One way or another, Donald Trump will follow through on his commitment to a “strategic bitcoin reserve” for the country.
The basic hypothesis is a decree converting the approximately 200,000 BTC that the United States already holds into an official strategic reserve. That would already be incredibly bullish.
A domino effect will follow and we can already hear the former German Finance Minister moving in this direction. This would save the furniture given that the disaster Olaf Scholz sold off the country's 50,000 BTC at an average price of $57,600….
An even more bullish scenario would be for the Trump administration to accumulate hundreds, thousands, or even millions of bitcoins. This scenario is less likely, but far from impossible. The reason being that D. Trump wants to reindustrialize his country. However, this involves a drop in the dollar which he could obtain by purchasing millions of BTC abroad.
It would also be a big geopolitical poker move against the BRICS who no longer want the dollar. The glorious era of the hegemony of the greenback is slowly coming to an end and the most serious contender is undoubtedly bitcoin.
Vladimir Putin recently praised him by declaring that “no one can ban him”. His Minister of Finance announced that bitcoin would henceforth be used to settle international trade.
And meanwhile, France still refuses to mine using surplus nuclear electricity. What a delay for the “blockchain nation” when the United States, Russia and China already claim 35%, 17% and 15% of the hashrate respectively.
Bitcoin on company balance sheets
The adoption of bitcoin by businesses as a treasury asset is a trend that is accelerating. The undeniable success of MicroStrategy and those who imitate its strategy shows that many wealth managers are eager to bet on bitcoin through publicly traded multinationals.
The creation of Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year and the good publicity from the world's most sophisticated investors have eliminated the “career risk” that previously existed for bitcoin supporters. A CFO no longer has to worry about being fired for simply suggesting a bitcoin position.
In addition, the recent change in FASB accounting rules now allows bitcoin price appreciation to be recorded on the balance sheet, making BTC holdings much more acceptable to accountants.
As a result, more and more companies are adding bitcoin to their balance sheet. The fact that Microsoft shareholders have refused to adopt this strategy only delays the inevitable.
Let us note in passing that multinationals and nations mainly accumulate bitcoins. The “Alt seasons” are no longer successful and we must expect that a substantial part of the 1000 billion dollars still invested in the shitcoin casino will pivot towards bitcoin.
Note for example that the BCH (Bitcoin Cash) fork ended the year 2024 with a new drop of 22% compared to BTC. It is now worth only 0.47% of real bitcoin.
How high will bitcoin go in 2025?
Will we do as well as in 2024 and its 120% increase? Maybe. Many firms are anticipating it. Here are the TOP 35 assets that appreciated the most in 2024:
Blockware – which correctly predicted in 2023 that we would reach $100,000 in 2024 – has published its new prediction. “We expect 2025 to be a good year for the BTC price”we can read.
Here are its three scenarios for 2025:
● $150,000 scenario:
-Trump does not act on BTC reserve
-The Fed flip-flops again on interest rate cuts
● $225,000 scenario:
-Current American assets are transformed into a strategic reserve.
-The Fed lowers interest rates as anticipated.
● Most likely scenario $400,000:
-The United States creates a reserve of BTC while accumulating more.
-The Fed is even more dovish.
-A Magnificent 7 multinational adds bitcoin to its treasury [Magnificent 7 : Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta et Tesla]
The firm that manages the Bitwise ETF is targeting $200,000:
“Record ETF flows have propelled bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2024. We don't think this demand will slow down anytime soon. Combine that with the reduction in supply through the April 2024 halving, plus new corporate and government purchases, well… If the US government buys a million bitcoins as Senator Cynthia Lummis is proposing, our goal of $200,000 increases to $500,000. »
Your servant is of the same opinion. On this subject, don’t miss our article: Bitcoin, Trump's plan B.
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