Bitcoin: US inflation threatens the $80,000 threshold

Bitcoin is approaching a decisive threshold, as markets await new US inflation indicators. After several positive sessions, capital inflows into spot ETFs slowed sharply, reducing price support. On Friday, PMI indices and household inflation forecasts could change investors’ expectations ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Maintaining $80,000 will therefore also depend on these economic signals.

Bitcoin defends $80,000 against institutional acquisition costs

The price of bitcoin is moving around $80,000, a level that is attracting the attention of institutional investors. According to the Glassnode report published on October 21, this threshold is close to the average acquisition costs of several categories of holders. US spot ETFs have an estimated cost price of $81,500. For their part, corporate treasuries tracked by Glassnode hold their digital assets at an average cost close to $80,200.

The massive sell-off on October 15 brought the market back close to this reference zone. The price closed around $80,100, after briefly falling below the ETF’s estimated cost price. This development has tested the ability of buyers to defend their positions. However, the market has returned to a level close to institutional acquisition costs, without confirming a lasting recovery.

THE Binance order book data shed another light on this battle. The main group of spot buy orders was concentrated around $80,000 before the sharp decline. Selling pressure absorbed much of it, but new orders appeared on October 20. Their volume nevertheless remains lower than that observed before the fall, which limits the scope of this support.

It is also necessary to distinguish the acquisition costs from the orders displayed on the platforms. The cost price of an ETF is the average cost of its assets, while that of a company reflects its purchases made. On the other hand, orders present in a book can disappear at any time. Maintaining the price above $80,000 therefore does not guarantee that buyers will defend this zone in the long term.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Slow Ahead of Inflation Data

Capital inflows into US cash ETFs have lost significant strength. According to Farside Investors datathese products recorded $526.7 million in net inflows on October 19. The next day, flows remained positive, but fell to just $23.2 million. This drop represents a decline of 95.6% in one session and highlights the recent slowdown in demand.

Over these two days, ETFs still attracted a total of $549.9 million. It is therefore not an entirely negative sequence, since both sessions recorded net entries. However, this development shows that new contributions are no longer progressing at the same pace. For bitcoin, the question now becomes whether institutional buyers will continue to support prices despite this loss of momentum.

Glassnode also notes a decline in activity over a longer period. The 30-day average trading volume of spot ETFs is now less than a quarter of the level seen a year ago. Corporate purchases of government bonds since June also remain less than 10% of the peak reached in November 2024. These figures reflect a broader slowdown in certain institutional investment activities.

This development comes as several American economic indicators are due to be published. On Thursday, an auction of inflation-indexed Treasury securities, amounting to $26 billion and maturing in five years, will assess demand for these bonds. On Friday, preliminary PMI indices and final inflation forecast from the University of Michigan will complement the available data. These meetings could modify rate expectations and influence flows towards risky assets.

US inflation could change market expectations

The latest inflation data shows that price pressures remain significant. The consumer price index increased by 3.7% year-on-year in September. Furthermore, the preliminary survey from the University of Michigan places one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%. Longer-term forecasts reach 3.5%, keeping investors concerned about price action.

Future publications will make it possible to check whether these expectations change. Friday’s preliminary PMIs, due at 9:45 a.m., will provide guidance on prices charged by businesses. Michigan’s final survey, scheduled for 10 a.m., will clarify household expectations. If this data exceeds previous estimates, markets could anticipate more persistent inflationary pressures and reassess their monetary outlook.

Another central element of this sequence is Federal Reserve policy. In September, the US central bank set its target rate range between 3.75% and 4%. According to a Reuters investigation94 economists out of 100 surveyed expect rates to be maintained at the October 28 meeting. Even without immediate change, new data could therefore modify expectations regarding future decisions.

Bond yields and the dollar could then react to the publications. According to Glassnode, the yield on two-year US bonds was approaching 4.8% on October 20, after rising more than a percentage point since the start of 2026. High inflation figures could add to this pressure. Conversely, more moderate indicators could ease yields and provide a more favorable environment for risky assets.

Resistance and support levels specify possible scenarios

Above $80,000, several levels could slow down price progression. Glassnode identifies an oversupply zone between $85,000 and $87,500. Investors who acquired their assets six to twelve months ago have an average price close to $86,700. Furthermore, potential liquidations on the futures markets are concentrated between $85,000 and $87,000, which reinforces the importance of this zone.

If economic data improves, the market could attempt to reach this upper range. If Michigan inflation expectations remain stable or decline and PMI price components decline, yields could lose strength. A drop in the two-year yield, accompanied by a stable or declining dollar, would reinforce this scenario. Bitcoin could then test the $85,000 to $87,500 zone, provided demand follows.

A crossing of $87,500 accompanied by greater volumes and repeated entries into ETFs would constitute an additional signal. It would indicate that buyers are absorbing part of the available supply above institutional cost prices. However, a simple increase in the price would not be enough to confirm this movement. The persistence of inflows and the reaction of bond markets would remain determining elements.

Conversely, higher inflation expectations could reinforce selling pressure. If PMI prices advance, yields and the dollar rise, and bitcoin ETFs see net outflows, buyers may have a harder time defending $80,000. A close below this threshold would bring the liquidation zone near $79,600 to the forefront. The actual market average, estimated at $77,600, would then provide another benchmark.

Fed meeting approaching in a still fragile market

The market reaction will also depend on how the economic data fits together. A less well-received five-year TIPS auction could push real yields higher, even if inflation expectations remain stable. This is why the evolution of the real yield over five years and that of the equilibrium inflation rate will deserve particular attention. Their combination will help better understand investor reaction ahead of Friday’s releases.

The scenario remains conditional, however, because certain recent indicators have sent different signals. On October 15, a favorable report on producer prices coincided with a decline in the ten-year yield towards 5.087%. The dollar also fell after hitting an 18-month high. This episode serves as a reminder that positive economic data can quickly change expectations and influence financial conditions.

For the coming days, the market’s ability to maintain its current levels will therefore depend on several factors. More regular inflows into bitcoin ETFs, coupled with lower returns, could facilitate a return to higher resistances. Conversely, persistent inflation and a tightening of financial conditions could weaken demand. The Fed meeting on October 28 will then shed new light on the monetary outlook.

Ultimately, bitcoin remains close to the acquisition costs of several institutional investors, but this support is not enough to confirm a recovery. Friday’s inflation data will test whether demand can absorb supply between $85,000 and $87,500. If $80,000 gives way, the levels of $79,600 and then $77,600 could become central again. The reaction of yields, the dollar and ETFs will determine the further movement before the Fed’s decision.