Bitcoin: The truth about Satoshi Nakamoto is darker than expected

For more than ten years, the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, anonymous creator of Bitcoin, has fueled rumors and speculation. An elusive character, who revolutionized modern finance before mysteriously disappearing. However, with each attempt to unravel this mystery, a new veil seems to cover the matter. With the imminent release of an HBO-produced documentary, a new wave of speculation has descended, and recently, a significant update shook up the predictions. Now, Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, allows its users to bet on the identity of the legendary creator of Bitcoin, while the odds are constantly evolving. So who is Satoshi Nakamoto really? Will this documentary finally provide a definitive answer?

Bitcoin Satoshi

Len Sassaman: The name that gets people talking

In the world of cryptocurrencies, some names resonate louder than others. Currently, it is that of Len Sassaman which takes center stage. According to Polymarket punters, Sassaman leads the speculation with a 45% chance of being named the real Satoshi Nakamoto. But why this particular name?

Sassaman, a renowned cryptographer, was a strong advocate of privacy. Highly respected in cypherpunk circles, he spent much of his life exploring the fields of cryptography and anonymous systems.

Some consider him the ideal candidate: his work in the communities that shaped the beginnings of Bitcoin, as well as his technical expertise, make him a serious contender.

Although he died in 2011, which might a priori rule out his direct involvement in the later development of Bitcoin, his deep knowledge and commitment to privacy fuel this theory. After all, who better than an expert in cryptography and anonymity could have designed such revolutionary technology?

But Sassaman's story doesn't end there. Some even believe that his tragic disappearance was orchestrated to maintain the mystery surrounding Satoshi. A bold hypothesis, but one which adds a new dimension to this already complex puzzle. With such a profile, it is not surprising that Polymarket sees Satoshi Nakamoto potential in him.

Other candidates, but reduced chances

Although Sassaman leads the betting, he is not the only candidate in the race. Hal Finneya pioneer of cryptography, comes in second place with a 15% chance.

Finney is a name often mentioned in the context of Bitcoin, and for good reason: he was an early adopter of the cryptocurrency and even received the very first Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi himself.

This proximity to Nakamoto, coupled with his major contributions to the field of cryptography, makes Finney a serious candidate, even if the community remains divided over his exact role.

It is also interesting to note that some believe that Finney may have been in close collaboration with Nakamoto, or even operated under that pseudonym. But despite these theories, his chances, according to Polymarket, remain lower than those of Sassaman.

Other contenders include Nick Szabooften credited for his work on smart contracts, and Adam Backcreator of Hashcash, a technology that largely influenced the development of Bitcoin.

However, their odds are far from high: respectively 2% for Szabo and 7% for Back. Szabo, in particular, although theorized as one of the main minds behind Bitcoin, seems to have lost ground in this speculative race.

The big unknown: what if it was more than one person?

Finally, a more intriguing hypothesis continues to circulate: what if Satoshi Nakamoto was not just one personbut a group of anonymous collaborators? According to punters38% believe that the HBO documentary could reveal that Satoshi Nakamoto is not an isolated individual, but the product of a collective effort.

This theory, although attractive, raises new questions. Is it possible that several cryptography experts worked together to create Bitcoin, then decided to withdraw under a common pseudonym?

This option, although it seems far from the classic tale of a solitary genius, would fit the collaborative spirit of the cypherpunk communities that have shaped privacy and decentralization technologies. Such a revelation would shake up our perception of the history of Bitcoin.

Update: Nick Szabo edges out Len Sassaman

After a recent statement from HBO producer Cullen Hoback, the classification of suspects in the Satoshi Nakamoto identity case has been shaken up.

Len Sassaman, who until then dominated betting on Polymarket, lost ground to Nick Szabo, the American computer scientist known for his Bit Gold project, a precursor to Bitcoin.

This reversal comes following Hoback's revelations to CNN, indicating that he would have confronted the man he believes to be the true creator of Bitcoin, thus removing Sassaman, who died in 2011, from the list of contenders.

Since this announcement, Szabo has passed in the lead with a probability 27.9% of being referred to as Satoshi Nakamoto in the HBO documentary, Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery. This figure is followed by Sassaman with 14%, while Blockstream CEO Adam Back is in third place with 4.3%.

The HBO documentary, highly anticipated by the crypto community, is expected to propose a specific name as a potential creator of Bitcoin.

Nick Szabo, through his work on Bit Gold, a decentralized network with elements that largely inspired Bitcoin, is seen by many as a plausible candidate. Although Szabo has always denied being Satoshi, this theory continues to attract interest.

At the same time, the “Other/Multiple” option, which leaves the possibility that Satoshi is a group of people, remains one of the most popular hypotheses on Polymarket, with a probability of 37%. This lead raises the question of an anonymous collaboration between several cryptography figures, who would have worked together to create Bitcoin under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court lets Silk Road lose $4.4 billion!

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