The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is again and again pushing back its decision on the famous Bitcoin ETFs. Despite this dilatory strategy, many observers remain convinced that these crypto index funds will see the light of day in the United States by 2024. Explanations.
A waltz of postponements
While Jacobi Asset Management has just created a historic first by launching the very first Bitcoin spot ETF in Europe on the Amsterdam stock exchange, the situation remains blocked across the Atlantic.
Crypto enthusiasts are starting to find the time long. Since 2013 and the first listing application filed by the Winklevoss brothers, the SEC has been procrastinating.
For now, only ETFs backed by Bitcoin futures have ended up being approved from 2021. Since then, they have been attracting interest and standing out against other ETFs.
Recent applications are no exception. Whether it’s ARK Invest, Fidelity or other asset management heavyweights, all are facing new postponements, pushing back final decisions to 2024 in some cases. The SEC has the power to delay any application for up to 240 days after its initial registration.
A measured optimism
Despite these repeated delays, many voices in the industry remain confident that adoption will be forthcoming. According to a recent study, the probability of approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF would be close to 65% across the Atlantic. The growing influence of behemoths like BlackRock or Fidelity on regulators pleads in favor of an early green light.
Other experts speculate that the SEC could approve several ETFs simultaneously. The objective would be to avoid creating an unfair competitive advantage by selecting only one market player. Personalities of the caliber of Cathie Wood or Michael Sonnenshein of Grayscale are among the most enthusiastic.
The reluctance of the SEC is partly explained by the still embryonic nature of the supervision of cryptocurrencies in the United States. Between the lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance or Ripple, and the sanctions imposed on platforms like Bittrex, the stock market policeman still seems hesitant.
Legislative clarifications are under discussion in Congress to better delineate the respective roles of the SEC and the CFTC in this new digital Far West. In addition, the outcome of certain disputes, such as the Ripple case, could create a decisive precedent in case law.
2024, probable horizon
Despite the current uncertainties, it therefore seems increasingly likely that these Bitcoin ETFs directly backed by crypto will eventually land across the Atlantic by 2024.
The political and economic pressure will be too strong for the SEC to stick to its guns. It remains to be seen whether this historic green light will come at the beginning of 2024, mid-2024, or the end of 2024. Whatever the precise deadline, there is no doubt that the arrival of these revolutionary index funds will mark a decisive turning point for crypto-assets. This momentum may well catalyze bitcoin’s ascent, potentially propelling it past $100,000, in line with Robert Kiyosaki’s predictions.
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