Bitcoin's four-year cycle has not disappeared into the noise. According to an analysis relayed around CryptoQuant data, the 2026 decline resembles, in its internal mechanics, the corrective phase of the previous cycle. Prices and on-chain indicators come together, like two pieces of the same puzzle that we thought were lost.
In brief
- Bitcoin is going through a correction that strongly resembles that of the 2020–2022 cycle.
- On-chain metrics deteriorate along with the price structure.
- The 4-year cycle seems to be holding, without guaranteeing that the low point has already been reached.
A bitcoin cycle that repeats itself… especially when we look at the structure
The central idea is simple. After the halving, bitcoin accelerates hard, then the momentum cracks. This “expansion then weakening” sequence appears again in the market benchmarks used by analysts.
In expansion phases, the price often moves above the halving-anchored VWAP, the Volume Weighted Average Pricein other words the average price weighted by volumes. It's a landmark. A compass, even. When closes hold near the upper bands, the market frequently enters the overheated zone. And bitcoin replays this sequence cycle after cycle.
Then the music changes. Moving below closely followed technical levels, such as the weekly SMA50, often acts as a signal of fatigue. Not a guaranteed “top”. More of a change of pace.
The tipping point: when the price of bitcoin stops being carried “by itself”
In the 2020–2022 cycle, a moment often comes up in retrospectives. The market prints a relative low, then fails to make a new high. The price of bitcoin is starting to respect resistances, not just supports.
This pattern is precisely what many are looking for today. Not to guess the next number, but to qualify the environment. A market that rebounds in a strong trend does not have the same texture as a market that rebounds reflexively.
The important nuance is that these signals do not “prove” a sequence written in advance. Above all, they say that the bitcoin has not entered a completely new regime. The current correction behaves like a cycle correction, with its stages and friction zones.
On-chain data confirms tension, not just volatility
This is where the analysis becomes more interesting. When the price of bitcoin weakens and the on-chain remains robust, we can speak of a simple shock. When the price weakens and the on-chain deteriorates at the same time, we speak of structural stress.
In the 2026 bitcoin decline, several metrics are approaching levels already seen in the 2022 period. The “Supply in Loss” would be around 9.5 million BTC. The NUPL would have cooled towards +0.11. The losses realized would approach 6 billion dollars. This trio tells the same story: many recent buyers find themselves stuck.
Another stinging signal. The “new whales” would fall into negative territory via the UPR, while the old wide-body aircraft would still remain in profit, but with a compressing margin. And on the short term side, the NUPL of recent holders would go negative, which is consistent with the idea of capitulation.
What this implies: not an end of cycle, rather a foundation test
Saying “the bitcoin cycle is holding” does not mean “the bottom is done”. The analysis itself remains cautious. The message is above all that the correction is part of a known grammar, instead of being an accident without logic.
In this context, two outcomes remain open. Either the pressure gets worse and we slide towards a deeper capitulation. Either the market builds a base, with a stabilization of the price and a gradual improvement in the indicators of losses and latent profits.
One final point is worth keeping in mind. The “4-year cycle” is a map, not the territory. Macro, liquidity and regulation can speed up or slow down the scenario. But when the price of bitcoin and the on-chain start telling the same story again, it becomes more difficult to brush the cycle aside.
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