The feeling around Bitcoin has been at the bottom since the beginning of 2023. Several analysts, however, identify encouraging signs of a possible change in dynamics while the queen of cryptos shows remarkable resilience in the face of recent volatility of the American stock markets.
A lowering feeling that could announce a bitcoin rebound
The Bitcoin market is currently going through one of its least optimistic phases since January 2023. The Haussier score index, a key indicator of investor feeling, has displayed its lowest value for two years, according to cryptocurrency data.
Historically, values less than 40 during prolonged periods increase the probability of a lower market. This index remained greater than 40 throughout 2024, ironing under this threshold until February 2025.
However, a remarkable phenomenon has occurred in recent days. On April 3, while the S&P 500 collapsed by 4.5 %, Bitcoin closed the day in positive territory, a historic first.
The next day, on April 4, the American stock market indices continued their descent with respective decreases of 3.8 7 % for the S&P 500 and 3.44 % for the Dow Jones, while Bitcoin maintained its stability near the balance.
This unusual resilience comes in a context of global trade tensions, in particular with the threats of new customs duties by the Trump administration, which generally tend to negatively affect risky assets.
Technical signals favorable to a market reversal
The “Value Days Destroyed” (VDD) indicator of Bitcoin, currently at 0.72, signals a pivotal phase for the crypto, according to Cryptocurrency.
This technical indicator measures the movements of bitcoins held in the long term. When it drops, it indicates that long -standing holders stop selling.
In December 2024, the VDD reached 2.27, testifying to a strong profits similar to the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Its fall at 0.65 in April reveals that this massive sales phase was coming to an end.
Historically, since 2023, these transition periods have led either to a price stabilization, or to a new phase of accumulation preceding an upward trend.
The “Fear & Greed” index confirms this analysis with a score of 28 (“fear”) on April 4, after a hollow of 25 (“extreme fear”) the day before. For annoying investors, these excessive levels of pessimism often report purchasing opportunities.
The behavior of “whales” strengthens this perspective. These major investors have resumed their purchases for the first time since August 2024, a period when Bitcoin oscillated between $ 50,000 and $ 60,000. This return to accumulation could announce a next rebound.
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