Bitcoin: Technical signals announce a possible decline today under $ 100,000!

While Wall Street flies against a background of appeasement between Washington and Beijing, Bitcoin, it wins under 102,400 dollars on May 12. An unexpected drop, which contrasts with ambient optimism and the institutional momentum of the past few weeks. Why didn't the BTC take advantage of the Euphoria of the Markets? A few hours before the publication of the American ICC, investors wonder: simple profits, or the pre-launder signal of a deeper macroeconomic stress?

A technical correction fueled by the macroeconomic context

On May 12, Bitcoin recorded a sudden fall, going from an intra-journal peak to $ 105,819 to a lower $ 102,388, without a clearly lower macroeconomic catalyst. However, this decline comes in a globally favorable context.

Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing have progressed in Geneva, which sparked Wall Street's enthusiasm. Indeed, the American president Donald Trump himself praised the progress via his Truth Social platform, and speak of a bearing agreement.

At the opening of the markets, the Dow Jones jumped by 1,000 points, but Bitcoin did not follow. Some traders believe that the market has already integrated the effects of Trump's deal with China, since Bitcoin has failed to hold over $ 104,000 despite such magnitude.

Beyond this macroeconomic interpretation, market data indicate a movement of profits and risk reduction by certain investors. This caution could be linked to the expectation of the publication of the ICC (consumer price index) scheduled for May 13. Technical and behavioral indicators support this hypothesis:

• The derivative markets have recorded a clear increase in selling positions, accompanied by an increase in funding rates (Funding Rate), which indicates a change in feeling;
• The volume of sales has progressed both on the Spot market and on perpetual term contracts, when the BTC approached $ 106,000;
• The rate of liquidations of long positions has increased, which indicated that many traders closed their positions before the ICC or for fear of a more marked correction;
• Finally, the sales pressure emanates in particular from actors in profits, whose behavior contributes to current consolidation.

These signals confirm that the decline in the BTC is essentially technical and opportunistic, more than a reaction to a degraded fundamental factor.

Haussiers fundamentals still in place

Beyond this technical correction, several elements testify to an underlying bullish impulse, carried by a dynamic of increasing adoption. The same day as this drop, Michael Saylor, CEO of microstrategy, announced a new massive purchase of 13,390 BTCbringing the company's cash to 568,840 BTC.

At the same time, the action of the Kindlymd company recorded a spectacular flight of 600 %. This increase follows theannouncement From its merger with Nakamoto Holdings, an investment company specializing in Bitcoin. The latter was founded by David Bailey, the current Crypto advisor by Donald Trump. If these announcements were not enough to immediately support the price, they nevertheless reinforce the feeling that institutions continue to position themselves in the long term.

THE On-chain data Supplied by Glassnode corroborate this diagnosis. Thus, the RSI indicator remains at an exceptionally high level of 100, which “shows a strong force in the new request”, according to analysts.

On the other hand, the profits indicators are increasing. This configuration is typical of transition periods where the market consolidates its earnings before a new cycle. Moreover, the positive flows on the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded in the last seven days reflect persistent confidence on the side of institutional investors, despite volatility.