Bitcoin recorded its best monthly performance in a year in April, at a time when the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high. This double movement takes place in an environment marked by persistent inflation and economic uncertainties. Is the return of risk appetite solid or does it mask market fragility?
In brief
- Bitcoin recorded its best monthly performance in a year, driven by a renewed appetite for risk.
- The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high, supported by the strength of big tech companies.
- The stock and crypto markets are evolving in parallel, reflecting a strengthened correlation between traditional finance and cryptos.
- This dynamic comes despite persistent inflation, which raises questions about its robustness.
Bitcoin up sharply in a euphoric market context
Bitcoin posted a monthly increase of +11.9% in April, marking its best performance over a year thanks to the influx of capital into ETFs. The price is moving around $77,500, in a context of renewed risk appetite.
This increase comes in parallel with a marked upward movement on traditional markets, with the S&P 500 setting new historical records, driven in particular by the solid results of large technology companies.
Such dynamics are part of a paradoxical macroeconomic environment. Despite persistent inflation in the United States, investors continue to favor risky assets. The simultaneous evolution of bitcoin and equity markets indicates an alignment of capital flows, where crypto and traditional finance are progressing together, in a market phase clearly oriented towards risk-taking.
Here is some important elements :
- Bitcoin posted a monthly increase of +11.9%, its best performance over a year, with a price around $77,500;
- The S&P 500 reached an all-time high close to 7,220 points;
- Equity markets gained more than $8,000 billion in capitalization in one month;
- US inflation (PCE index) reached 3.5%, its highest level since August 2023.
The Kobeissi Letter underlines: “from the first month of the conflict with Iran, American inflation reached a peak not seen in three years” And “the data for the month of April will be particularly scrutinized”.
Charlie Bilello says: “A year ago, the index was at 5,600. Five years ago, at 4,200. And ten years ago, at 2,100”.
A rally under surveillance despite bullish momentum
Behind this favorable dynamic, certain technical signals call for caution. Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim key levels, including its 21-week exponential moving average. Analyst Rekt Capital believes that “Bitcoin’s decline continues and it looks more and more like a rejection to the exponential moving average (EMA)…”suggesting that the current movement may be more of a technical rejection than a true structural recovery.
This inability to cross certain thresholds opens the way to more cautious scenarios. A correction towards the $60,000 zone is envisaged to consolidate the market. The current development reflects a tension between an upward momentum fueled by global liquidity and a still fragile technical structure.
In the long term, this configuration reveals a market in search of equilibrium. Correlation with traditional markets strengthens bitcoin's positioning in the global financial ecosystem. At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainties and technical signals remind us that this upward phase could be put to the test in the weeks to come.
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