Bitcoin (BTC) a ticking time bomb, analysis from August 15, 2023

Bitcoin recorded an increase of more than 13% last week and is starting a new one by marking a new high. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for the BTC price together.

Status of Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin continued its uptrend after briefly moving in a range between $42,000 and $44,000. Indeed, in the space of four days, it reached $48,000. It is important to note that this latest price level corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, calculated from Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH). This Monday, February 12, BTC continued its upward movement, reaching the psychological threshold of $50,000. This is how the Bitcoin price once again positioned itself above its 50-day moving average. From an investor’s point of view, this phenomenon could indicate the continuation of the upward trend of the parent cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has resumed vigorously, and oscillators have confirmed it. Indeed, the latter rebounded above the median threshold and crossed their previous peak, thus invalidating the bearish divergence previously highlighted in the analysis of January 6, 2024.

BTCUSD Daily Chart
BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)

We can see that Bitcoin’s open interest has increased along with its price with a positive funding rate since Wednesday February 7. Thus, the simultaneous increase in these latter indicators suggests that traders are generally optimistic about the future of the market. However, it is important to keep in mind that such a situation may paradoxically indicate excess optimism, propelling the price of Bitcoin to unsustainable levels in the short term and thus increasing the risk of a correction. Regarding liquidations, it should be noted that the breakthrough beyond $49,000 led to several forced liquidations of short positions. This shows selling pressure being forced to capitulate, thus supporting Bitcoin’s uptrend.

Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate
Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate

The liquidation heat map for BTC/USD shows that the liquidation barrier around $44,000 has been breached, which has visibly stimulated buying interest. Currently, the closest liquidation zones to the current price are below it, notably at the $46,000 and $47,000 levels. Lower, the $42,000 threshold also remains significant. As the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap (1 month)

Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

If the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $46,000 – $47,000, we could anticipate a further rise to the $50,000 threshold. The next resistance to take into account, if the bullish movement continues, would be $52,000 or $54,000, in the event that Bitcoin fills its bearish gap on futures contracts (CME). At this stage, this would represent an increase close to + 8%.

If the price of Bitcoin fails to maintain above $46,000 – $47,000, we could envisage support for buying interest in the $44,000 zone. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $42,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 15%.


Bitcoin reached a new high by crossing the psychological threshold of $50,000. Thus, it seems that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has resumed with vigor. However, after a period of intense volatility, it is common to see a phase of consolidation, or even correction. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.

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