After a sharp rebound from support, bitcoin broke through its last major resistance, reaching a new ATH at $126,293. Discover the technical outlook for the future evolution of BTC.
In brief
- Technical analysis: Bullish structure on all horizons, supported by a rebound on support and a bullish breakout towards a new ATH.
- Technical Levels: Strong supports around $108,150 – $105,000, key resistance at $126,293.
- Market sentiment: Dominant confidence, supported by institutional inflows that are still present but slowing.
- Derived analyses: Open interest increasing, positive funding, liquidations mainly on the short side.
- Forecast: Bullish bias above $119,345, but risk of correction towards $117,500 if broken.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin is trading at $121,200, after a week marked by strong upward volatility (+10%). The rebound observed at the support zone ($108,000) led to a break of resistance towards a new all-time high. Weekly spot volumes reached $35 billion (+36.6%), reflecting renewed investor interest.
In terms of trends, the SMA 200 confirms long-term bullish solidity, while the SMA 50 and 20 validate a positive direction in the medium and short term. Momentum reflects a resumption of momentum, although oscillators are signaling a slight loss of steam after the recent acceleration.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elyfeinvestor and popularizer in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin (BTC) technical levels
The market is organized around several key thresholds. Major resistance now lies at $126,293, matching the new ATH. This level constitutes a critical threshold, likely to act as a distribution zone if buying pressure runs out of steam.
Supports between $108,150 and $105,000 form strategic defense zones, where accumulation could begin in the event of a pullback.
The monthly pivot point at $113,098 sits below the current price, consolidating the ongoing bullish bottom structure.
Finally, the volume profile highlights a high value zone at $122,700 and a low zone at $117,400, limits of a market equilibrium whose rupture could amplify volatility.
Market sentiment
Global sentiment is now dominated by greed, illustrating growing confidence among stakeholders. Flows to spot BTC ETFs remain positive, but show a slowdown: most of the inflows have already supported the recent rise. This situation suggests that, although institutional confidence remains, the potential for upside surprise could diminish in the near term.
Derivatives analysis (BTC/USDT)
Derivatives markets confirm the dominant bullish bias. Open interest is increasing significantly, a sign of an upward speculative repositioning. The CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) remains balanced, reflecting shared activity between buyers and sellers. The funding rate remains positive and persistent, reflecting a clear upward bias without signaling excessive overheating. Recent liquidations have mainly affected short positions, a direct consequence of the breakout movement towards the ATH.
The selling liquidation zone, between $126,350 and $127,600, appears to be a critical threshold: a crossing could reinforce the upward dynamic through a squeeze effect, but could also serve as a distribution zone if the momentum runs out of steam.
In contrast, the long liquidation zone, located between $108,200 and $106,500, remains vulnerable to a breakdown. Such a breakout could cause a bearish acceleration, while representing a potential point of interest for strategic accumulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts
Bullish scenario:
- Conditions: Price maintained above $119,345.
- Targets: $124,255 / $126,300 (ATH) and possible extensions.
- Potential: Around +4% from current level.
Bearish scenario:
- Conditions: Support broken at $119,345.
- Goals: $117,500 / $113,000 / $108,200.
- Potential: Around -11% from current level.
Conclusion
Bitcoin maintains a solidly bullish technical structure, driven by the break of its major resistances and renewed activity in volumes. Derivatives confirm this direction, although the overheating of sentiment and the slowdown in institutional flows call for caution. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor the price reaction at strategic levels in order to confirm or adjust current forecasts. Finally, remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria, and that the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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