The Bitcoin network sends an ambiguous signal. While mining difficulty has just fallen, suggesting a respite for companies in the sector, indicators are already pointing to an imminent rebound. Behind this technical adjustment lies a brutal reality: a weakened sector, faced with growing economic constraints. Between algorithmic mechanics and tensions over profitability, the mining industry is going through a pivotal phase whose implications could quickly be felt.
In brief
- The Bitcoin network sends contrasting signals, between a drop in difficulty and persistent tensions in the mining ecosystem.
- The mining difficulty decreases slightly in the short term, in a classic technical adjustment of the protocol.
- An increase is already anticipated during the next adjustment, confirming a dynamic still under pressure.
- Mining companies are stepping up their Bitcoin sales, with more than 32,000 BTC liquidated in one quarter.
A drop in difficulty quickly set to reverse
Bitcoin mining difficulty fell by around 1.1%, to around 135.5 trillion. This movement is part of the normal operation of the protocol, which automatically adjusts the difficulty according to the computing power of the network.
Data already indicates an imminent reversal, with an increase expected by the 1er May 2026. The adjustment would bring the difficulty from 135.59 T to 137.43 Tafter approximately 1,865 blocks mined, or almost twelve days.
THE key elements of this adjustment are as follows:
- A limited drop in difficulty to around 135.5 T (-1.1%);
- An upward projection to 137.43 T from the next cycle;
- An expected adjustment in ~1,865 blocks;
- A delay estimated at around 12 days.
This mechanism illustrates the self-regulated logic of the Bitcoin network. The observed drop does not reflect a lasting change in dynamics, but a simple technical adjustment linked to variations in the hashrate. Thus, the short-term trajectory is oriented towards an increase in difficulty, confirming that the computational pressure on the network remains high.
Mining specialists under pressure despite technical adjustment
Alongside this adjustment, the sector's economic indicators show a clear deterioration. Listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of the year, a volume greater than their entire sales for all of 2025.
This figure even exceeds the 20,000 BTC liquidated in the second quarter of 2022 during the collapse of Terra-Luna. This acceleration reflects growing financial pressure on players in the sector.
Operating conditions have become significantly tougher. CoinShares summary this situation by asserting that “the fourth quarter of 2025 was the most difficult period for bitcoin mining companies since the April 2024 halving”.
The combination of several factors is weighing on margins: rising energy costs, reduced rewards after halving, and a drop in price from $125,000 to $86,000 between October and December 2025. According to estimates, up to 20% of companies are now unprofitable.
This situation reveals an imbalance between the technical resilience of the network and the economic fragility of its participants. If the protocol continues to adjust effectively, the viability of companies now depends on an overall environment, including the price of BTC and operational costs. In the medium term, this pressure could accelerate the consolidation of the sector, favor the most efficient players and redraw the map of global mining.
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