Bitcoin in November: Consolidation rather than explosion?

Uncertainty looms over crypto markets as macroeconomic conditions dampen November's usual bullish momentum. Will bitcoin manage to preserve its reputation as the best performing month of the year?

The Fed cools the dream of an explosive November for Bitcoin

Crypto investors who were hoping for a legendary “Moonvember” may need to temper their expectations. Bitfinex publishes a clear observation: the current macroeconomic context favors stabilization more than soaring prices.

Blame it on Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, who sowed doubt about the continuation of monetary easing.

The odds of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting have plummeted to 67.9% according to the CME's FedWatch tool. A sudden turnaround compared to the 90% posted in recent months. This prospect worries crypto market playersaccustomed to taking advantage of accommodative policies that push capital towards riskier assets.

Long-term investors are showing signs of weakness. Bitfinex is seeing persistent sales in this category, traditionally the most loyal. “ They show signs of losing conviction », Underline the analysts. Without a rise above $116,000, time is now against the most optimistic buyers.

The current correction is weighing heavily on portfolios. Bitcoin is down 11% over the last 30 days and is struggling to regain its momentum after reaching an all-time high of $125,100 in early October. The October 10 crash, which wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions, continues to haunt memories.

Optimists bank on history repeating itself

Not all eyes are on the bottom. Several analysts defend the idea that November could still honor its golden reputation. The numbers speak for themselves: since 2013, November has shown an average performance of 41.78% for bitcoin. A statistic which fuels the hope of a spectacular turnaround.

Dave Weisberger, seasoned trader, insists that the “fundamentals” of bitcoin remain solid. “ The context is VERY constructive compared to previous cycles “, he says.

His belief is based on a simple observation: bitcoin is trading at relatively low levels compared to other financial assets. An opportunity rather than a threat, according to him.

Social networks are buzzing with optimism. Carl Runefelt publicly predicts on X that “the month of November will soon become green again for bitcoin”.

His message, concise but confident, resonates with that of AshCrypto which maintains an “always optimistic” position. These discordant voices are a reminder that market sentiment can shift quickly in the volatile world of cryptos.

Ignacio Aguirre, marketing director at Bitget, shares this measured enthusiasm. “ We are optimistic about the growing popularity of Moonvember. Bitcoin's current sideways movement represents a healthy consolidation phase after recent volatility. Historically, November has always been one of the strongest months for cryptocurrencies “, he explains.

The end of the year could also benefit from the famous “Santa Claus Rally”, this seasonal phenomenon which traditionally propels risky assets in December. Small investors are discreetly accumulating after the declines in October, a technical signal that often heralds rebounds. It remains to be seen whether this accumulation will be enough to turn the tide.

In short, bitcoin is navigating troubled waters between macroeconomic pessimism and seasonal hopes. If November fails to deliver on its historic promises, December could offer a second chance to patient investors. The outcome of this battle will largely depend on the Fed's decisions and the market's ability to regain confidence.