Wintermute sees bitcoin as the crypto market’s main defensive asset in the face of altcoin declines and macroeconomic nervousness. This qualification, however, remains relative: BTC has also fallen and does not constitute a risk-free investment.
In brief
- According to Wintermute, Bitcoin is holding up better than Nasdaq and altcoins despite the market decline.
- BTC fell 1.99% over the week, compared to 7% for Ether and 5.69% for altcoins.
- The $82,500 threshold remains decisive support, while $87,000 constitutes major resistance.
- Investors favor bitcoin over altcoins, considered riskier in the current context.
- The Fed’s next decision could cause a further decline in bitcoin or encourage its rebound.
Bitcoin defends a decisive zone at $82,500
In its latest weekly report, Wintermute places the threshold of $82,500 at the center of its analysis. Bitcoin fell 1.99% over the week, but it held up better than the Nasdaq and the majority of major cryptos.
BTC briefly fell towards $80,400 before rebounding. This slump coincided with approximately $679 million in net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.
The main figures show why Wintermute favors bitcoin in the current context:
- Bitcoin lost 1.99% over the week;
- The Nasdaq fell 5.52%;
- All altcoins dropped around 5.69%;
- Ether fell 7%;
- Bitcoin ETFs suffered $679 million in net outflows;
- $82,500 represents the main defense level of BTC;
- 87,000 dollars is the resistance to cross.
Wintermute estimated :
Bitcoin’s 3.5 point advance on the Nasdaq shows greater resistance than suggested by the macroeconomic context.
The market maker therefore makes it a relative refuge within the crypto universe, rather than a safe haven comparable to a government bond.
This distinction is important. Bitcoin remains volatile and sensitive to interest rates, global liquidity and investor behavior. It simply appears to be absorbing the current pressure better than Ether, XRP, and smaller-cap digital assets.
Investors abandon the most fragile altcoins
The decline in altcoins reflects a movement of concentration of capital. Traders are reducing their exposure to tokens deemed riskier and are mainly focusing on the most liquid cryptocurrencies.
Wintermute observes that “altcoin flows become one-sided”with the exception of a few large assets considered more solid. This trend means that sales dominate a large part of the market, without sufficient demand to immediately absorb the tokens on offer.
Ether retains an important place in this rotation, but its weekly drop of 7% shows that it does not benefit from the same protection as bitcoin. XRP remains even more exposed to general altcoin weakness, despite its high capitalization and regulated investment products in the United States.
According to Wintermute, “bitcoin must advance before altcoins can resume a general rise”. This reading reduces the likelihood of an autonomous rebound in Ether, XRP or secondary tokens in the near term.
Correlations between the top 50, 100 and 250 cryptos have also increased. The assets therefore move more in the same direction. In this type of market, the characteristics specific to each project weigh less than macroeconomic decisions and bitcoin movements.
The choice of Wintermute does not constitute a purchase recommendation, however. It only indicates that the relationship between risk and return currently appears more favorable on large cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, than on altcoins.
The Fed could break the balance of the crypto market
The acceleration in American inflation has increased investor caution. The annual price increase reached 3.7%, while core inflation increased by 0.3% month-on-month. The increase in energy costs is thus beginning to affect other categories of goods and services.
Defensive capital flowed into Brent oil and US bonds. Brent gained about 5%, while Treasury securities rose 2.65%. At the same time, the return of links between traditional markets and cryptocurrencies weighed on digital assets.
Wintermute does not believe that the current stability will last in the face of future events. “We don’t think this fork will hold up to them”says the company about the Fed meeting, the US midterm elections and corporate results.
The monetary decision of October 27 and 28 could cause an exit from this zone. A stricter speech from the Fed could push bitcoin below $82,500, with a possible return to the bottom of the $70,000 zone.
Conversely, a more flexible stance from the central bank, accompanied by solid results on Wall Street, could support a recovery. A lasting move above $87,000 would then reinforce the scenario of a return to previous peaks.
Bitcoin therefore appears to be the most defensive crypto asset according to Wintermute, but this resistance still depends on maintaining $82,500. Ether and XRP risk remaining under pressure as long as BTC does not find a clearly bullish trajectory.
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