On the eve of a decisive Fed meeting, Bitcoin surprises by crossing $94,000, a symbolic threshold which rekindles the debate on a possible bullish return. This rebound comes after several days of hesitation and in a climate of macroeconomic tension, where the markets are scrutinizing the slightest monetary signal. Between technical revival and investor caution, the crypto market is agitated, but remains suspended on FOMC announcements.
In brief
- Bitcoin crossed the symbolic threshold of $94,000 on the eve of the FOMC, reigniting the debate on a possible bullish reversal.
- This crossing marks a significant technical break after several days of hesitation and market consolidation.
- Several technical indicators confirm a renewed momentum, notably the absorption of the fair value gap and the surpassing of resistance at $93,500.
- The market remains suspended on the Fed's decision, which could play a determining role in whether or not a new bullish cycle is validated.
A key threshold crossed, but technical dynamics still fragile
Bitcoin rose above $94,000, strengthening its short-term bullish structure after a few days of indecision.
After long failing to secure a daily close above $93,000, BTC this time crossed $93,500, establishing a decisive ascending high to restart the bullish momentum.
Since December 3, the market has stagnated in a narrow range, with investors adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards US monetary policy decisions.
Several technical elements confirm this short-term reversal, without guaranteeing its solidity:
- The fair value gap (FVG) between $87,500 and $90,000 has been completely absorbed, which erases the trough left by recent hesitation;
- The clear crossing of resistance at $93,500 marks a return of immediate bullish momentum;
- Bitcoin now moves around the monthly VWAP, both on 4-hour and daily time units. A consolidation above this indicator would reinforce the scenario of a real reversal;
- Trader Jelle underlines the importance of this technical threshold by declaring: “rather boring day so far, with BTC oscillating around the monthly opening… To watch: a low below $87,600 or a clear break of $93,000”.
In other words, if the upward movement is real, it remains anchored in zones of technical neutrality for the moment. The market reaction after the Fed meeting could serve as a decisive catalyst to validate or invalidate this potential bull run.
Liquidity and sentiment indicators still lagging behind
Beyond crossing $94,000, several key metrics indicate that the market is not yet fully embracing the recovery.
The bid-ask ratio remained relatively low and irregular, a signal that buyers are acting without real aggressiveness. Unlike November's sharp drop, where heavy buying absorbed selling pressure between $100,000 and $80,000, this rise is driven more by price than actual market depth.
The gap is also visible in premium indices between regions. On the one hand, the Korea Premium Index, often used to gauge the appetite of retail investors, has cooled, moving to near-zero or slightly negative levels. In other words, Asian speculators are not continuing this increase, a marked contrast with previous rally phases where South Korea posted solid premiums.
Conversely, the Coinbase Premium Index, an indicator of American institutional flows, is once again positive. Historically, these signals indicate modest accumulation in the early phase of the reversal, but without widespread enthusiasm.
The price of bitcoin has crossed a key threshold, rekindling hopes of a new bullish cycle. However, without confirmation of volumes or clear macroeconomic support, caution remains in order.
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