Bitcoin falls below $67,000 as Stifel warns of possible collapse to $38,000

Bitcoin is teetering below $67,000 and concerns are growing. In an already feverish context, the Stifel bank is issuing a severe alert: a return to $38,000 would now be possible. Such a decline, i.e. more than 40% drop, would far exceed the usual corrections. This scenario, supported by technical and macroeconomic signals, brings the volatility of the crypto market back to the forefront. And this time, it is no longer a simple warning.

Stifel sounds the alarm

While the whales become defensive, bitcoin briefly crossed the threshold of $67,000 downwards this Thursday, recording its lowest value since November 2024. This decline is part of a tense context, amplified by a report issued by the investment bank Stifel, which evokes a bearish scenario that could drive BTC up to $38,000.

“If this level were reached, it would represent an additional drop of 43% compared to current prices”specifies the Stifel document.

The analysis put forward by the bank is based on a series of macroeconomic and market factorsidentified as potential catalysts for a prolonged decline:

• A restrictive monetary policy of the American Federal Reserve, reducing investors' risk tolerance;

• The regulatory blockage in the United States, which slows down visibility and institutional initiatives in the crypto ecosystem;

• The contraction of overall liquidity, making the market more vulnerable to seller shocks;

• Continued withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling a loss of institutional confidence;

• A historical reading of the market cycle: after a peak at $126,000 in October 2025, a correction phase is considered probable by Stifel, consistent with previous cycles.

Technical signals turn red

Beyond this reading based on fundamentals, market observers like Walter Bloomberg are warning of growing tensions within derivative instruments.

It evokes a phenomenon of “forced deleveraging”or a rapid disengagement from leveraged positions which fuels additional selling pressure. This mechanism could increase volatility in the short term, particularly if key technical levels were to give way.

The figures are clear. On Thursday alone, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of 7,925 BTC, or approximately $533 million. Over the past week, withdrawals totaled 19,090 BTC, the equivalent of approximately $1.28 billion, which confirms a trend of institutional disaffection.

Graphically, analyst MartyParty highlights the importance of the $68,000 threshold, corresponding to the 200-week exponential moving average. He specifies that a failure to stay above this support could result in a decline towards the 200-week simple average, around $58,000.

Despite the current pressure and alarming forecasts, the market remains attentive at its key levels. If uncertainties persist, some players maintain their confidence: bitcoin remains a safe investment despite the crisis, supported by its historical resilience and the interest it continues to arouse among long-term investors.