This Sunday evening, bitcoin fell by almost 2% at the same time as oil jumped by around 20%, driven by fears of shortages linked to the escalation in the Middle East. This sudden divergence reveals a deeper shift. Faced with energy risk, the speculative narrative fades, and BTC once again becomes an asset exposed to geopolitical shocks.
In brief
- The market turned upside down in a matter of minutes: oil soared, and bitcoin immediately lost ground.
- The surge in crude, fueled by tensions in the Middle East, has put energy risk back at the center of the game.
- BTC then lost its momentum, caught between geopolitical nervousness and the cautious reflex of investors.
- Basically, this episode shows that crypto remains vulnerable as soon as the market brings energy and macro risk back to the forefront.
The oil shock causes bitcoin to stumble
In just a few minutes, the market turned upside down. At the opening of American futures contracts, the surge in oil took over in arbitrages, in a climate of growing tensions over global supplies.
In fact, crude oil went from 95 dollars to 113.7 dollars per barrelwhile Iraq cited a risk of disruption of around 3 million barrels per day due to Iranian threats to tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, bitcoin lost ground. The asset rose from $66,960 to $65,725 around 10:30 p.m. UTC, before rebounding to $67,560 currently. Donald Trump has reacted to this surge in crude oil by ensuring that prices “will fall back very quickly”while rejecting the idea of immediate recourse to the strategic reserve, with this other formula: “we have more than enough oil”.
- Oil jumped from $95 to $113.7 per barrel at the opening of US futures;
- Iraq has cited a risk of disruption of around 3 million barrels per day;
- Bitcoin fell from $66,960 to $65,725 in fifteen minutes.
From an asset carried by war to an asset taken over by risk aversion
Bitcoin had first progressed during the previous phase of the conflict, climbing from less than $64,000 to $73,770 on Wednesday, in a context marked by the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. However, the market did not react linearly to the war. He first took BTC higher, before sanctioning it when oil emerged as the dominant variable.
Since this peak, bitcoin has had four consecutive sessions of decline, while oil gained more than 30% over the week and reached its highest level since April 2022. This divergence between the trajectory of crude and that of BTC sheds light on the state of mind of the market. In a crisis where energy once again becomes the nerve center, operators first seem to revalue the supply risk before reassessing the thesis of a bitcoin capable of absorbing the geopolitical shock on its own.
Bitcoin gave way at the precise moment when oil regained control of the market. In this climate of energy and geopolitical tension, extreme fear is once again affecting the crypto market. The next few days will tell whether this is a simple bout of stress or the start of a more lasting downturn for investors.
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