The crypto market is in turmoil. According to data from SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have suffered more than $2 billion in net outflows over the last ten trading days. A record since January! However, these massive outflows did not cause the expected collapse of bitcoin. On the contrary, BTC has regained height. It even crossed the psychological threshold of $77,000. A spectacular disconnection that redistributes the cards!
In brief
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost more than $2 billion in ten days, a record since January.
- Despite these outflows, BTC is holding above $77,000 thanks to solid spot demand.
- Investors are now monitoring the strength of this new upward dynamic.
This is not a bitcoin flight, but a portfolio rotation
According to crypto experts, the current dynamics of bitcoin can be explained quite simply. On May 15, the yield on 30-year U.S. bonds jumped to 5.12%. This is its highest in a year, after disappointing inflation data.
Faced with such attractive rates, fund managers have mechanically arbitraged their crypto positions towards Treasury bills. This is particularly the case for giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. But that says nothing about the long term outlook for bitcoin. The fact is that the ETF flow data are retrospective in nature.
Decryption: they reflect decisions already taken, not market expectations.
The price of bitcoin now follows another logic
While institutional investors were liquidating and massively reducing their positions in bitcoin and Ethereum via ETFs, other buyers were taking over. We are referring to Individual Investors, non-ETF whales and Asian markets which absorbed the selling pressure. The proof: volumes on spot platforms exploded in 24 hours.
According to some crypto analysts, this explains the bitcoin resistance is even more structural. They refer to the buyer base which has diversified profoundly since the launch of ETFs in early 2024:
- Corporate treasuries now hold approximately 5.6% of BTC in circulation.
- Asian markets capture a growing share of global demand.
- Supply remains historically constrained: reserves on crypto exchanges are around 2.4 to 2.7 million BTC, with nearly 75% of coins dormant for more than six months.
Result: the flows of American ETFs no longer alone dictate the bitcoin price. If BTC consolidates above $77,000, the next major resistance is around $81,000.
One thing is certain: bitcoin now appears capable of withstanding pressures that would have previously caused a major correction. The next few weeks will be crucial to know if the queen crypto can maintain this momentum above $77,000 or if the market enters a consolidation phase. To be followed closely…
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