Bitcoin ETF, a “disappointment”?  Gabor Gurbacs from VanEck calms the spirits

Spot Bitcoin EFTs have been at the heart of discussions lately. While some speculation revolves around a rejection or approval of these new financial products, others focus on the impacts of trackers on BTC from a financial perspective. Indeed, more and more analysts do not rule out the thesis of a migration of fresh capital into the market after the green light from the SEC. Gabor Gurbacs, advisor at VanEck, provides some clarification on this subject.

Bitcoin ETF and its trillions of dollars

The SEC could issue its response regarding bitcoin spot ETFs between January 5 and 10, some analysts predict. But a recent Reuters report suggested that starting tomorrow Tuesday, or Wednesday, Gary Gensler’s team will comment on this subject.

The countdown is now on.

Many may be disappointed by the ‘initial impact’ of a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs. However, if gold ETFs are to be believed, there is no reason to worry? »

In his analysis, Cointelegraph highlighted the lack of positive impacts of Bitcoin ETFs on the cryptocurrency market in the immediate future. For G. Gurbacs, the trillions of dollars will take much longer to appear.

Here is a post that he shared on December 31 on X (Twitter):

In my opinion, people tend to overestimate the initial impact of US ETFs on bitcoin. I think it might bea flow of 100 million dollars of money (mainly recycled). In the long term, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs. If history is anything to go by, gold is worth studying alongside. »

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A prediction that comes close to 70.5 billion incoming flows advanced by Glassnode last November, in fact.

Gold, a model for bitcoin?

Gold, as an easily tradable store of value, is often the subject of reference for bitcoin analysts. Comparing these two assets at the market capitalization level and as the best antidote to inflation has already set Cointribu on fire in 2021.

Between gold and BTC, the choice seems difficult for some traders: in the majority of cases, certain financial advisors like Robert Kiyosaki offer the combination of the two.

For Gabor Gurbacs, the breakthrough of ETFs linked to gold can serve as a basis for analyzing the evolution of spot ETFs linked to bitcoin.

On November 18, 2004, the SPDR (State Street) Gold ETF (GLD) was launched. Over the next eight years, the price of gold quadrupled from $400 to $1,800, increasing the market capitalization by about $8 trillion from $2 trillion to $10. trillions of dollars. The market capitalization of bitcoin is now $750 billionless than a third of that of gold in 2004. In my opinion, upon approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United Statesthe price trajectory could follow the gold pattern in 2004 and subsequent yearsbut much faster “, he tweeted in early December.

Except that spot Bitcoin ETFs represent traps for the queen of cryptocurrencies, believes Arthur Hayes.

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