Bitcoin, energy and geopolitics: how are wars redefining global value?

In a few days, everything can change. The war between Iran, the United States and Israel is not only disrupting geopolitical balances: it is already reconfiguring world markets. Oil on the rise, gas under pressure, precious metals in turmoil, maritime routes weakened, increased volatility… we are entering a phase where economic benchmarks are changing rapidly. In this context of growing geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin is gradually emerging as an indicator of these transformations, revealing a more profound change in the global system, the first implications of which are already visible to us.

When energy wavers, markets tilt

“Control the oil and you control the nations. “, a historical quote often attributed to Henry Kissinger, the former American Secretary of State, which takes on its full meaning today as the conflict in the Middle East places energy at the heart of global economic balances.

In any major crisis, energy is the central breaking point in the global energy market. In the short term, tensions trigger immediate reactions in financial markets, but their impact quickly goes beyond this initial phase. It is often through energy that major economic crises begin to materialize.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and a notable share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit, perfectly illustrates this vulnerability of energy supply flows. The disruption to traffic in this area caused an immediate shock to the energy markets.

In the first weeks of the conflict, oil prices crossed $100 per barrel, with peaks reaching $114. Some projections even evoke higher levels in the event of prolonged blockage.

But the most significant impact is observed on the gas market, particularly in Europe. From the start of the crisis, European gas prices jumped by 20% to 45% in a few days, reaching around €46/MWh, before climbing to almost €70/MWh (+29%) in the following weeks.

In some cases, prices almost doubled in March, notably due to the partial cessation of gas exports and tensions on energy infrastructure, reinforcing the perception of a global energy crisis.

This dynamic is also visible in real time on the markets, as evidenced by the movements of TTF contracts relayed by Bloomberg on X, where certain projections anticipate sustainably high prices by 2027 in a context of persistent geopolitical tensions.

These increases have direct consequences on the real economy. In Europe, rising energy prices are contributing to inflation estimated between 2.5% and 2.8%, while weighing on growth prospects and investors' asset allocation.

Beyond the numbers, the dynamic is transparent: markets now react as much to scenarios as to the events themselves. Investors adjust their positions based on the risks of escalation, disruption of energy flows or overall economic slowdown, leading to considerable movements in capital flows. But, above all, these tensions profoundly redefine the perception of value.

When access to energy becomes uncertain, it is no longer just financial assets that structure the economy, but the capacity to secure essential resources. Thus, oil, maritime routes and gas supplies become central, revealing a shift where value now depends on control of resources and flows.

Gold and silver: safe havens put to the test by war

Traditionally, geopolitical crises support precious metals, particularly gold, within defensive financial assets. During the escalation between Iran, the United States and Israel, this pattern first held true, with prices near $4,700 to $4,800 per ounce. But this dynamic quickly reverses. Gold is down around –17% since the start of the conflict and up to –25% since its recent highs.

Silver follows the same trajectory, with declines of up to –25%. This volatility is explained firstly by the rise in energy prices, which fuels inflation and maintains high rates, an unfavorable environment for gold. Furthermore, investors favor liquidity, leading to massive sales, including on safe haven assets.

In a context of strong global economic instability, even assets deemed stable lose their traditional behavior. Precious metals no longer systematically play their role as a safe haven, revealing a market now influenced by energy, rates and geopolitical tensions.

The petrodollar under pressure: a monetary system in the process of tipping over

Beyond energy and markets, the current geopolitical upheavals are part of a broader transformation of the international monetary system. Since the 1970s, markets have mainly denominated oil in dollars, sustainably strengthening the dominance of the American currency after the end of the gold standard.

This system allowed the dollar to become the main global reserve currency. However, this domination is gradually changing. According to the IMF data from the COFER programthe dollar's share of global reserves has increased from around 70% in the early 2000s to almost 56% today, reflecting a gradual diversification of central banks towards other currencies.

This dynamic is accelerated by recent geopolitical tensions. Since 2022, several countries, including China and Russia, have increased energy transactions in alternative currencies, notably in the yuan and the ruble. Likewise, some BRICS members are talking about the creation of alternative exchange mechanisms for international trade.

In the current crisis, marked by the war between Iran, the United States and Israel, these developments take on an additional dimension. Conflicts over energy routes and sanctions-related uncertainties strengthen incentives to diversify payment mechanisms and monetary reserves.

In this context, certain initiatives already illustrate this transition: At the time of writing this article, sources report that Iran reportedly set up a passage system controlled by the Revolutionary Guards in the Strait of Hormuz. In this zone, some ships must obtain prior validation and, in some cases, make payments in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrencies to guarantee their transit. The system reflects broader efforts to circumvent sanctions and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.

What the markets are observing today is a gradual questioning of a system that has been in place for more than 50 years. So, the international monetary system therefore does not disappear, but evolves towards a more fragmented configurationwhere several frames of reference coexist. This development marks a gradual transition from unipolar monetary system towards a more multipolar system.

Bitcoin: new safe haven in the face of geopolitical chaos?

It is in this context of global recomposition that a more profound evolution of the notion of value emerges. As geopolitical dynamics redefine economic balances, Bitcoin stands out as an asset capable of evolving independently of traditional systems and the classic financial system.

This asset fits into this dynamic as a unique instrument, whose decentralized structure and supply limited to 21 million units reinforce its positioning in an environment marked by economic and geopolitical instability.

However, its behavior differs from traditional safe havens. During the early phases of the conflict, the Bitcoin market fell by around 15%, before quickly rebounding, with daily variations that could exceed 5%, confirming significantly higher volatility than traditional assets.

This volatility is nevertheless part of an increasingly structured market. Thus, increasing liquidity, derivative products, ETFs, arbitrage strategies, help to absorb part of the shocks, which favors rapid correction phases followed by equally marked rebounds. Unlike energy or metals, which are directly affected by the conflict, Bitcoin reacts in a more indirect way, with a less brutal impact but more marked volatility.

This two-stage behavior – initial decline, then recovery – shows that it does not function as a classic safe haven, while gradually revealing the limits of the current system. Rather than an everyday currency, it tends to establish itself as a store of value on a global scale. Bitcoin does not immediately protect – it absorbs distrust of the system. Its ability to evolve outside state circuits, while remaining integrated into global dynamics, gives it a particular place in this transition phase.

We are thus witnessing a progressive redefinition of value, where traditional benchmarks now coexist with new forms of assets. In this new equilibrium, markets now react as much to global tensions as to the economy. As a result, value no longer depends only on currency, but on international balances, resources and confidence in the monetary system. A transformation that Bitcoin does not create, but that it reveals.