For the first time since 2018, bitcoin closed October lower, breaking a seven-year streak of consecutive gains. This unexpected decline raises a crucial question: will November, traditionally the best performing month for the crypto queen, manage to reverse the trend? Analysis of causes, possible scenarios and strategies for investors.
In brief
- October 2025 marks bitcoin's first downward close since 2018, falling from 3.35% to 3.69%.
- November, historically the best performing month for bitcoin (+42.51% on average), could offer a rebound or fall of 36.57%.
- In November 2025, bitcoin investors should watch for upcoming Fed decisions, ETF flows, and whale movements.
Why the“Uptober” 2025 disappointed bitcoin investors
October, nicknamed “Uptober” by the crypto community, this year disappointed expectations. Indeed, bitcoin recorded a drop from 3.35% to 3.69%, a rare performance since 2018. Several factors explain this setback:
- Massive liquidations, estimated at nearly $19 billion, played a key role, amplified by increased market volatility;
- Geopolitical tensions, notably the trade war between the United States and China, also weighed on prices.
Furthermore, buyer enthusiasm has waned after months of relative stability, where bitcoin was trading in a tight range between $107,000 and $126,000. According to Kronos Research, this correction does not mark a trend break, but rather a temporary liquidity stress. Investors therefore remain torn between caution and opportunity.
November, the month of all records… or all falls?
Historically, November is the best performing month for BTCwith an average increase of 42.51% since 2013. As a result, bitcoin is expected to explode to $160,000 during this month. Except that this year, expectations are mixed. Some analysts anticipate a rebound, driven by the easing between the United States and China, as well as the recent Fed rate cut of 0.25%. Others, more cautious, fear a repeat of 2018, where November fell by 36.57% after a red October.
Key factors to watch out for include:
- The Fed's next decisions in December;
- The dynamics around Bitcoin ETFs;
- Crypto market reactions to macroeconomic data like inflation and employment.
Additionally, investors will need to track whale movements and liquidations, to anticipate reversals.
Strategies for investors: should you buy, sell or wait?
Faced with this uncertainty, strategies vary. Bullish buyers see current levels as an opportunity to accumulate, banking on a historic bitcoin rally in November. The most cautious prefer to wait for trend confirmation, such as a break of key resistances or supports.
Risks to avoid include FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in the event of a sudden rally, as well as panic in the event of a further decline. The use of stop-loss is recommended to limit losses. Tools from Glassnode or CryptoQuant can help analyze on-chain data and Greed and Fear indicators, providing a clearer view of the market.
Finally, Red October does not necessarily mean a prolonged crypto winter. November remains a decisive month for bitcoin, where investors will have to navigate between opportunities and risks. The question remains open: will November 2025 be that of revenge or decline for bitcoin?
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