Bitcoin's current stability may be hiding a sharp reversal. While the asset opened 2026 at $87,500, rarely combined technical signals, bullish divergence of the RSI, extreme compression of the Bollinger bands, signal an imminent surge in volatility. Several analysts speak of a possible rebound. However, attention is also focused on another breaking point: the announced end of the four-year cycle, the historic pillar of crypto strategies, now called into question by influential market voices.
In brief
- Bitcoin begins 2026 at $87,500, in an apparent calm which could mask strong volatility to come.
- Several rare technical signals, including a bullish divergence in the RSI and a historic squeeze in the Bollinger bands, are attracting the attention of analysts.
- At the same time, the theory of the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin is being questioned by major figures in the sector.
- Influential voices believe that Bitcoin is entering a new market phase, less cyclical, more influenced by traditional finance.
Technical signals herald a possible explosion in volatility
While some experts anticipate a historic Bull Run in 2026, others observe an unusual alignment of indicators suggesting strong volatility ahead.
On X (formerly Twitter), trader Jelle notably highlighted: “New year, new beginning. We have a bullish divergence confirmed on the 3-day time frame, right at the level of a key support ». Here it refers to a bullish divergence on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) in a three-day time unit, generally interpreted as a signal announcing an increase.
For his part, analyst Quantdata21 draws attention to another phenomenon: extreme compression of the Bollinger bands. “There is only one other time the daily Bollinger Bands have been this tight, with a weekly RSI below 40. That was in January 2023, and everyone remembers what happened to bitcoin after that”he writes, recalling the surge in prices observed at that time.
THE following items contribute to fueling the hypothesis of an imminent breakout:
- Bullish three-day RSI divergence detected as BTC tests key support;
- A weekly RSI below 40, a level rarely reached in a context of price compression;
- A record compression of the Bollinger bands, with the width of the bands as low as in January 2023, the period which preceded a strong bullish surge;
- A context of return of traditional markets (TradFi) after the end-of-year break, which could catalyze sudden movements.
For seasoned technical analysts, the coincidence of these indicators constitutes fertile ground for a phase of increased volatility. Even if the direction of the movement remains to be confirmed, the dynamic seems to lean towards the bullish side in the short term, according to several market participants.
Towards the end of the 4-year cycle: a new era for bitcoin?
In parallel with technical analysis, another discussion is gaining intensity within the cryptosphere: that of calling into question the famous four-year cycle of bitcoin.
On December 31, well-known entrepreneur and maximalist Simon Dixon, founder of Bnk To The Future, declared on X: “goodbye to the 4-year Bitcoin cycle”affirming that 2026 would mark the entry into a “new era” for BTC.
This statement echoes a reality: for the first time since the establishment of the post-halving model, bitcoin closed an entire year in the red after a halving, a situation which calls into question the solidity of the cyclical model used for more than ten years.
This rupture is partly explained by the structural transformation of the market. The massive arrival of institutional capital, new investment vehicles (ETFs, regulated derivatives), and the growing financialization of the ecosystem seem to dilute the influence of historical events such as halvings.
In this context, some analysts, like Michaël van de Poppe, prefer to focus on more contemporary market dynamics. He believes that the recent growth in accessibility to bitcoin could be enough to propel the price towards “$90,000 in the coming weeks”.
As technical signals accumulate and historical benchmarks waver, the future of bitcoin appears to be opening up into new territory. In this uncertain context, Mow predicts a historic bullish decade for bitcoin, a prospect which, if confirmed, would permanently redefine investment strategies in the crypto ecosystem.
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